Recreativo do Libolo v Sagrada Esperança prediction · Girabola

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Recreativo do LiboloDrawSagrada Esperança

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sagrada Esperança 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sagrada Esperança just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Recreativo do Libolo 33%, draw 32%, Sagrada Esperança 36%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Recreativo do Libolo v Sagrada EsperançaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Recreativo do Libolo win33%

Draw32%

Sagrada Esperança win36%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Recreativo do Libolo

Sagrada Esperança

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Girabola

Last match: 24 Oct · Girabola

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Sagrada Esperança	7	+2	11
8	Recreativo do Libolo	7	−5	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sagrada esperança winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Sagrada Esperança a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Recreativo do Libolo v Sagrada Esperança~~1.04 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Girabola this season · since 26 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 11~~8 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Recreativo do Libolo win	33%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Sagrada Esperança win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Recreativo do Libolo or draw	64%	–	–
Recreativo do Libolo clean sheet	34%	–	–
Sagrada Esperança clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 13.1 11.8 7.1 2.7 1 11.1 14.4 7.3 2.7 2 6.4 6.9 3.8 3 2.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Recreativo do Libolo down, Sagrada Esperança across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,195 Girabola matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Girabola matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Recreativo do Libolo at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sagrada Esperança away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Recreativo do Libolo, 1.10 for Sagrada Esperança. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~REC 3–1 SAG · SAG 5–1 REC · SAG 1–0 REC · REC 2–1 SAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Girabola this season · since 26 Aug

RECREATIVO DO LIBOLO

LLWLWL0–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 0–1

SAGRADA ESPERANÇA

WLWDDW3–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wiliete	6	+11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	+7	14
3	Bravos do Maquis FC	7	+5	14
4	1º de Agosto	6	+4	14
5	Interclube	7	+3	13
6	Desportivo Huíla	7	+3	13
7	Sagrada Esperança	7	+2	11
8	Recreativo do Libolo	7	−5	9
9	São Salvador	7	−2	8
10	1º de Maio	8	−3	8
11	CD Lunda-Sul	7	−1	7
12	Recreativo da Caála	7	−2	6
13	Kabuscorp	7	−2	6
14	FC Luanda	8	−6	5
15	Sporting de Cabinda	7	−5	4
16	Académica do Lobito	8	−9	3