Recreativo da Caála v 1º de Agosto prediction · Girabola

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Recreativo da CaálaDraw1º de Agosto

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:15

Before kick-off · Match result · 1º de Agosto 35%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with 1º de Agosto just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Recreativo da Caála 30%, draw 34%, 1º de Agosto 35%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Recreativo da Caála v 1º de AgostoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Recreativo da Caála win30%

Draw34%

1º de Agosto win35%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 16:15

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Recreativo da Caála

1º de Agosto

10Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Girabola

Last match: 23 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	1º de Agosto	6	+4	14
12	Recreativo da Caála	7	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 1º de agosto winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make 1º de Agosto a 35% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Recreativo da Caála v 1º de Agosto~~0.89 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Girabola this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 14~~12 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Recreativo da Caála win	30%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
1º de Agosto win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	29%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Recreativo da Caála or draw	65%	–	–
Recreativo da Caála clean sheet	38%	–	–
1º de Agosto clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.2%

0123450 17.2 14.0 7.3 2.4 1 12.7 14.1 6.4 2.1 2 6.1 5.8 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Recreativo da Caála down, 1º de Agosto across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,193 Girabola matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Girabola matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.0% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Recreativo da Caála at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). 1º de Agosto away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.89 goals for Recreativo da Caála, 0.97 for 1º de Agosto. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ODE 1–1 REC · REC 1–0 ODE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Girabola this season · since 22 Aug

RECREATIVO DA CAÁLA

LWLLDD1–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

1º DE AGOSTO

WWWDWD1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wiliete	6	+11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	+7	14
3	Bravos do Maquis FC	7	+5	14
4	1º de Agosto	6	+4	14
5	Interclube	7	+3	13
6	Desportivo Huíla	7	+3	13
7	Recreativo do Libolo	7	−5	9
8	Sagrada Esperança	6	−1	8
9	São Salvador	7	−2	8
10	1º de Maio	7	0	8
11	CD Lunda-Sul	7	−1	7
12	Recreativo da Caála	7	−2	6
13	Kabuscorp	7	−2	6
14	FC Luanda	7	−6	4
15	Sporting de Cabinda	7	−5	4
16	Académica do Lobito	7	−9	2