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Petro de Luanda v Kabuscorp

Petro de Luanda

1–0Full time

Kabuscorp

Girabola · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:32

Petro de Luanda 1–0 Kabuscorp PETRO DE LUANDA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Petro de Luanda win~~68%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.162

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.167

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Petro de Luanda win at 68%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Petro de Luanda 68% before kick-off, 69% now. 0–0 · 69–22–9
1′KICK-OFF Petro de Luanda v Kabuscorp
14′We said Petro de Luanda at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–0 · 91–8–2
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Petro de Luanda 1–0 Kabuscorp
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Petro de Luanda win: 68% at kick-off, 91% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 90–8–1
45′HALF-TIME Petro de Luanda 1–0 Kabuscorp
46′SECOND HALF Petro de Luanda 1–0 Kabuscorp
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Petro de Luanda 2–0 Kabuscorp
59′We said Petro de Luanda at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Petro de Luanda win: 68% at kick-off, 99% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Petro de Luanda win: 68% at kick-off, 92% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Petro de Luanda win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
87′We said Petro de Luanda at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–90–2
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Petro de Luanda win: 68% at kick-off, 8% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Petro de Luanda win 8%)
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Petro de Luanda 1–0 Kabuscorp
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Petro de Luanda 1–0 Kabuscorp
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Petro de Luanda 1–0 Kabuscorp
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Petro de Luanda 1–0 Kabuscorp
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Petro de Luanda win: 68% at kick-off, 99% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Petro de Luanda win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Petro de Luanda win: 68% at kick-off, 6% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Petro de Luanda win 6%)
FTFULL TIME Petro de Luanda 1–0 Kabuscorp
FTPetro de Luanda 1–0 Kabuscorp · Petro de Luanda win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

Petro de Luanda win68%

Draw23%

Kabuscorp win9%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Petro de Luanda

Kabuscorp

4Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Petro de Luanda	5	+6	11
11	Kabuscorp	6	−1	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · petro de luanda winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

68% The market67%

Us68%

~~Market~~67%

We make Petro de Luanda a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–0.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · petro de luanda win The market, margin stripped

Published at 69%, 68% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Petro de Luanda win	68%	67%	+1
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Kabuscorp win	9%	10%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	38%	45%	−7
Both teams to score	31%	37%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	65%	69%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	24%	−6
Petro de Luanda or draw	91%	90%	+2
Petro de Luanda clean sheet	63%	–	–
Kabuscorp clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.4%

0123450 11.9 4.4 1 18.4 9.4 2.0 2 16.6 7.5 3 9.8 4.4 4 4.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Petro de Luanda down, Kabuscorp across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,186 Girabola matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Girabola matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.4% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.62 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Petro de Luanda at home: 2.17 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kabuscorp away: 0.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Petro de Luanda, 0.46 for Kabuscorp. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KAB 0–0 PET · PET 2–1 KAB · PET 0–0 KAB · KAB 0–2 PET

Form · last six in Girabola

PETRO DE LUANDA

DDWWWD0–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

KABUSCORP

DDLWLD1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wiliete	6	+11	16
2	1º de Agosto	6	+4	14
3	Bravos do Maquis FC	6	+5	13
4	Petro de Luanda	5	+6	11
5	Interclube	6	+2	10
6	Desportivo Huíla	6	+1	10
7	Recreativo do Libolo	6	−4	9
8	1º de Maio	6	+1	8
9	Sagrada Esperança	5	−1	7
10	CD Lunda-Sul	6	−1	6
11	Kabuscorp	6	−1	6
12	Recreativo da Caála	6	−2	5
13	São Salvador	6	−3	5
14	FC Luanda	6	−4	4
15	Sporting de Cabinda	6	−5	3
16	Académica do Lobito	6	−9	1