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Kabuscorp v Wiliete

Kabuscorp

1–1Full time

Wiliete

Girabola · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Kabuscorp 1–1 Wiliete WILIETE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wiliete win~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.684

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wiliete win at 35%.
1′Much as we predicted: Wiliete was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 34–31–35
7′Much as we predicted: Wiliete was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 33–32–35
45′We published Wiliete at 35%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 6–20–74
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Wiliete win 31%)
45′HALF-TIME Kabuscorp 0–1 Wiliete
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Wiliete win: 35% at kick-off, 74% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Wiliete win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Wiliete win: 35% at kick-off, 31% now
46′SECOND HALF Kabuscorp 0–1 Wiliete
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Wiliete win: 35% at kick-off, 74% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Wiliete win: 35% at kick-off, 74% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Wiliete win: 35% at kick-off, 74% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Wiliete win: 35% at kick-off, 74% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Wiliete win: 35% at kick-off, 74% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Wiliete win: 35% at kick-off, 74% now
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Kabuscorp 1–1 Wiliete
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Kabuscorp 1–1 Wiliete
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Kabuscorp 1–1 Wiliete
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Kabuscorp 1–1 Wiliete
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Kabuscorp 1–1 Wiliete
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Kabuscorp 1–1 Wiliete
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Kabuscorp 1–1 Wiliete
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Kabuscorp 1–1 Wiliete
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Kabuscorp 1–1 Wiliete
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Kabuscorp 1–1 Wiliete
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Kabuscorp 1–1 Wiliete
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Kabuscorp 1–1 Wiliete
FTFULL TIME Kabuscorp 1–1 Wiliete
FTKabuscorp 1–1 Wiliete · Wiliete win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kabuscorp win33%

Draw32%

Wiliete win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wiliete winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

35% The market–

Us35%

We make Wiliete a 35% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kabuscorp win	33%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Wiliete win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Kabuscorp or draw	65%	–	–
Kabuscorp clean sheet	36%	–	–
Wiliete clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.5%

0123450 14.5 12.9 7.0 2.4 1 12.5 14.2 6.8 2.3 2 6.6 6.6 3.3 3 2.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kabuscorp down, Wiliete across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,179 Girabola matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Girabola matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.38 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kabuscorp at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Wiliete away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Kabuscorp, 1.02 for Wiliete. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KAB 1–2 WIL · WIL 0–2 KAB · KAB 2–0 WIL · WIL 3–0 KAB

Form · last six in Girabola

KABUSCORP

WDDLWL1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

WILIETE

DWWWWW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wiliete	5	+11	15
2	1º de Agosto	5	+4	13
3	Bravos do Maquis FC	5	+5	12
4	Petro de Luanda	5	+6	11
5	Interclube	5	+2	9
6	Desportivo Huíla	5	+1	9
7	1º de Maio	5	+1	7
8	Sagrada Esperança	4	−1	6
9	Recreativo do Libolo	5	−5	6
10	CD Lunda-Sul	5	−1	5
11	Kabuscorp	5	−1	5
12	Recreativo da Caála	6	−2	5
13	FC Luanda	5	−3	4
14	São Salvador	5	−3	4
15	Sporting de Cabinda	5	−5	2
16	Académica do Lobito	5	−9	0