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Interclube v Sagrada Esperança

Interclube

1–1Full time

Sagrada Esperança

Girabola · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Interclube 1–1 Sagrada Esperança INTERCLUBE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Interclube win~~48%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.770

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.832

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Interclube win at 48%.
8′Little has changed for our model: Interclube 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–30–23
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Interclube 0–1 Sagrada Esperança
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Interclube 1–1 Sagrada Esperança
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Interclube 1–1 Sagrada Esperança
45′HALF-TIME Interclube 1–1 Sagrada Esperança
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Interclube 1–1 Sagrada Esperança
48′SECOND HALF Interclube 1–1 Sagrada Esperança
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Interclube 1–1 Sagrada Esperança
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Interclube 1–1 Sagrada Esperança
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Interclube 1–1 Sagrada Esperança
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Interclube 1–1 Sagrada Esperança
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Interclube 1–1 Sagrada Esperança
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Interclube 1–1 Sagrada Esperança
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Interclube 1–1 Sagrada Esperança
FTFULL TIME Interclube 1–1 Sagrada Esperança
FTInterclube 1–1 Sagrada Esperança · Interclube win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Interclube win48%

Draw30%

Sagrada Esperança win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · interclube winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

48% The market53%

Us48%

~~Market~~53%

We make Interclube a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · interclube win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Interclube win	48%	53%	−5
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Sagrada Esperança win	22%	19%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	36%	38%	−2
Both teams to score	41%	41%	0
Over 1.5 goals	63%	63%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	17%	19%	−2
Interclube or draw	78%	81%	−3
Interclube clean sheet	45%	–	–
Sagrada Esperança clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 12.8 8.9 3.9 1 14.9 13.3 5.1 2 10.3 8.3 3.4 3 4.6 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Interclube down, Sagrada Esperança across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,179 Girabola matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Girabola matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Interclube at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sagrada Esperança away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Interclube, 0.81 for Sagrada Esperança. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAG 1–0 INT · INT 4–1 SAG · INT 0–1 SAG · SAG 1–1 INT

Form · last six in Girabola

INTERCLUBE

DWWLWL0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–1

SAGRADA ESPERANÇA

LDLWLW0–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wiliete	5	+11	15
2	1º de Agosto	5	+4	13
3	Bravos do Maquis FC	5	+5	12
4	Petro de Luanda	5	+6	11
5	Interclube	5	+2	9
6	Desportivo Huíla	5	+1	9
7	1º de Maio	5	+1	7
8	Sagrada Esperança	4	−1	6
9	Recreativo do Libolo	5	−5	6
10	CD Lunda-Sul	5	−1	5
11	Kabuscorp	5	−1	5
12	Recreativo da Caála	6	−2	5
13	FC Luanda	5	−3	4
14	São Salvador	5	−3	4
15	Sporting de Cabinda	5	−5	2
16	Académica do Lobito	5	−9	0