FC Luanda v Desportivo Huíla prediction · Girabola

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

FC Luanda 0–2 Desportivo Huíla DESPORTIVO HUÍLA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Desportivo Huíla win~~38%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.585

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.488

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Desportivo Huíla win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Desportivo Huíla was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 30–33–37
1′KICK-OFF FC Luanda v Desportivo Huíla
25′We published Desportivo Huíla at 38%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 8–19–73
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' FC Luanda 0–1 Desportivo Huíla
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Desportivo Huíla win: 38% at kick-off, 73% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 7–19–73
38′We published Desportivo Huíla at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
45′HALF-TIME FC Luanda 0–1 Desportivo Huíla
46′SECOND HALF FC Luanda 0–1 Desportivo Huíla
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Desportivo Huíla win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
57′We published Desportivo Huíla at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
69′We published Desportivo Huíla at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Desportivo Huíla win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
78′We published Desportivo Huíla at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
82′We published Desportivo Huíla at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' FC Luanda 0–2 Desportivo Huíla
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Desportivo Huíla win: 38% at kick-off, over 99% now
87′We published Desportivo Huíla at 38%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–1 · 0–4–96
FTFULL TIME FC Luanda 0–2 Desportivo Huíla
FTFC Luanda 0–2 Desportivo Huíla · Desportivo Huíla win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Desportivo Huíla are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Luanda 30%, draw 33%, Desportivo Huíla 38%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on FC Luanda v Desportivo HuílaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC Luanda win30%

Draw33%

Desportivo Huíla win38%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Luanda

Desportivo Huíla

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Girabola

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Desportivo Huíla	6	+1	10
14	FC Luanda	6	−4	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · desportivo huíla winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market43%

Us38%

~~Market~~43%

We make Desportivo Huíla a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Luanda v Desportivo Huíla~~0.92 – 1.08

~~Form · Girabola this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 10~~14 v 6

~~The market · Desportivo Huíla win~~43% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Desportivo Huíla win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Luanda win	30%	27%	+3
Draw	33%	30%	+3
Desportivo Huíla win	38%	43%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	32%	38%	−6
Both teams to score	40%	45%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	60%	63%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	15%	19%	−4
FC Luanda or draw	62%	57%	+5
FC Luanda clean sheet	35%	–	–
Desportivo Huíla clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.1%

0123450 15.1 13.4 7.8 2.9 1 11.5 14.0 6.9 2.6 2 5.9 6.0 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Luanda down, Desportivo Huíla across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,191 Girabola matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Girabola matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.5% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

FC Luanda at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Desportivo Huíla away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for FC Luanda, 1.08 for Desportivo Huíla. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Girabola this season · since 22 Aug

FC LUANDA

DLWLLL0–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–2

DESPORTIVO HUÍLA

LWLWWD0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wiliete	6	+11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	+7	14
3	Bravos do Maquis FC	7	+5	14
4	1º de Agosto	6	+4	14
5	Interclube	7	+3	13
6	Desportivo Huíla	6	+1	10
7	Recreativo do Libolo	7	−5	9
8	1º de Maio	6	+1	8
9	Sagrada Esperança	6	−1	8
10	CD Lunda-Sul	7	−1	7
11	Recreativo da Caála	7	−2	6
12	Kabuscorp	7	−2	6
13	São Salvador	6	−3	5
14	FC Luanda	6	−4	4
15	Sporting de Cabinda	7	−5	4
16	Académica do Lobito	7	−9	2