Académica do Lobito v FC Luanda prediction · Girabola

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Académica do Lobito 1–1 FC Luanda ACADÉMICA DO LOBITO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Académica do Lobito win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.759

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Académica do Lobito are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Académica do Lobito 49%, draw 31%, FC Luanda 21%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Académica do Lobito v FC LuandaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Académica do Lobito win49%

Draw31%

FC Luanda win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Académica do Lobito

FC Luanda

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Girabola

Last match: 18 Oct · Girabola

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	FC Luanda	7	−6	4
16	Académica do Lobito	7	−9	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · académica do lobito winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Académica do Lobito a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Académica do Lobito v FC Luanda~~1.31 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in Girabola this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 2 v 4~~16 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Académica do Lobito win

Published at 47%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Académica do Lobito win	49%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
FC Luanda win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Académica do Lobito or draw	79%	–	–
Académica do Lobito clean sheet	48%	–	–
FC Luanda clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.8%

0123450 14.5 8.8 3.7 1 15.8 13.1 4.5 2 10.9 7.7 2.8 3 4.9 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Académica do Lobito down, FC Luanda across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,193 Girabola matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Girabola matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.0% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Académica do Lobito at home: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). FC Luanda away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Académica do Lobito, 0.73 for FC Luanda. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Girabola this season · since 28 Aug

ACADÉMICA DO LOBITO

LLLLDD0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

FC LUANDA

LWLLLL1–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wiliete	6	+11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	+7	14
3	Bravos do Maquis FC	7	+5	14
4	1º de Agosto	6	+4	14
5	Interclube	7	+3	13
6	Desportivo Huíla	7	+3	13
7	Recreativo do Libolo	7	−5	9
8	Sagrada Esperança	6	−1	8
9	São Salvador	7	−2	8
10	1º de Maio	7	0	8
11	CD Lunda-Sul	7	−1	7
12	Recreativo da Caála	7	−2	6
13	Kabuscorp	7	−2	6
14	FC Luanda	7	−6	4
15	Sporting de Cabinda	7	−5	4
16	Académica do Lobito	7	−9	2