Académica do Lobito v 1º de Agosto prediction · Girabola

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Académica do Lobito 1–1 1º de Agosto 1º DE AGOSTO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 1º de Agosto win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.695

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 1º de Agosto win at 44%.
4′Little has changed for our model: 1º de Agosto 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 23–32–44
7′Little has changed for our model: 1º de Agosto 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 23–33–44
20′We said 1º de Agosto at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 59–26–15
23′We said 1º de Agosto at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–26–14
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' 1º de Agosto win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Académica do Lobito win 23%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' 1º de Agosto win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Académica do Lobito win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was 1º de Agosto win 15%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' 1º de Agosto win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' 1º de Agosto win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' 1º de Agosto win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
39′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 65–25–10
40′We said 1º de Agosto at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 65–25–9
45′HALF-TIME Académica do Lobito 1–0 1º de Agosto
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Académica do Lobito 1–0 1º de Agosto
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' 1º de Agosto win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Académica do Lobito win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was 1º de Agosto win 10%)
46′SECOND HALF Académica do Lobito 1–0 1º de Agosto
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Académica do Lobito 1–0 1º de Agosto
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Académica do Lobito 1–0 1º de Agosto
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Académica do Lobito 1–0 1º de Agosto
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Académica do Lobito 1–1 1º de Agosto
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Académica do Lobito 1–1 1º de Agosto
FTFULL TIME Académica do Lobito 1–1 1º de Agosto
FTAcadémica do Lobito 1–1 1º de Agosto · 1º de Agosto win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Académica do Lobito win23%

Draw33%

1º de Agosto win44%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Académica do Lobito

1º de Agosto

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	1º de Agosto	5	+4	13
16	Académica do Lobito	5	−9	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 1º de agosto winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

44% The market–

Us44%

We make 1º de Agosto a 44% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–1.1, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Académica do Lobito win	23%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
1º de Agosto win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	29%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Académica do Lobito or draw	56%	–	–
Académica do Lobito clean sheet	33%	–	–
1º de Agosto clean sheet	49%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.7%

0123450 16.7 16.7 9.9 3.8 1 10.5 13.5 7.1 2.7 2 4.2 4.6 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Académica do Lobito down, 1º de Agosto across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,181 Girabola matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Girabola matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.5% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.20 goals a meeting; 0 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Académica do Lobito at home: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). 1º de Agosto away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.73 goals for Académica do Lobito, 1.13 for 1º de Agosto. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.20

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ODE 0–1 ACA · ACA 1–1 ODE · ODE 0–0 ACA · ACA 1–1 ODE

Form · last six in Girabola

ACADÉMICA DO LOBITO

DLLLLL0–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1

1º DE AGOSTO

DWWWDW1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wiliete	6	+11	16
2	1º de Agosto	5	+4	13
3	Bravos do Maquis FC	5	+5	12
4	Petro de Luanda	5	+6	11
5	Interclube	6	+2	10
6	Desportivo Huíla	5	+1	9
7	1º de Maio	5	+1	7
8	Sagrada Esperança	5	−1	7
9	Kabuscorp	6	−1	6
10	Recreativo do Libolo	5	−5	6
11	CD Lunda-Sul	5	−1	5
12	Recreativo da Caála	6	−2	5
13	FC Luanda	5	−3	4
14	São Salvador	5	−3	4
15	Sporting de Cabinda	5	−5	2
16	Académica do Lobito	5	−9	0