Sporting Escaldes v Casa de Portugal prediction · 1a Divisió

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:08

Sporting Escaldes 1–1 Casa de Portugal CASA DE PORTUGAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Casa de Portugal win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.895

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Casa de Portugal win at 47%.
2′Much as we predicted: Casa de Portugal was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 29–24–47
2′KICK-OFF Sporting Escaldes v Casa de Portugal
23′Sporting Escaldes find the net on 21′. 1–0. 1–0 · 56–22–23
23′We said Casa de Portugal at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 56–22–23
23′⚽ GOAL · 21' Sporting Escaldes 1–0 Casa de Portugal
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Casa de Portugal win: 47% at kick-off, 23% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Sporting Escaldes win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Casa de Portugal win 45%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 57–22–21
35′We said Casa de Portugal at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 58–23–19
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Casa de Portugal win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
45′HALF-TIME Sporting Escaldes 1–0 Casa de Portugal
46′SECOND HALF Sporting Escaldes 1–0 Casa de Portugal
50′We said Casa de Portugal at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
61′We said Casa de Portugal at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Casa de Portugal win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
73′We said Casa de Portugal at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
91′A goal for Sporting Escaldes on 90′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Sporting Escaldes 2–0 Casa de Portugal
93′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+3' Sporting Escaldes
98′⚽ GOAL · 90+8' Sporting Escaldes 1–1 Casa de Portugal
98′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+8' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Sporting Escaldes win 98%)
FTFULL TIME Sporting Escaldes 1–1 Casa de Portugal
FTSporting Escaldes 1–1 Casa de Portugal · Casa de Portugal win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Casa de Portugal are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting Escaldes 29%, draw 24%, Casa de Portugal 47%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Sporting Escaldes v Casa de PortugalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sporting Escaldes win29%

Draw24%

Casa de Portugal win47%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueEstadi Nacional

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting Escaldes

Casa de Portugal

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · 1a Divisió

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Casa de Portugal	5	−6	4
9	Sporting Escaldes	5	−9	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · casa de portugal winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Casa de Portugal a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting Escaldes v Casa de Portugal~~1.45 – 1.96

~~Form · 1a Divisió this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D0 L4 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 3 v 4~~9 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Escaldes win	29%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Casa de Portugal win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Sporting Escaldes or draw	53%	–	–
Sporting Escaldes clean sheet	17%	–	–
Casa de Portugal clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 5.2 5.9 6.2 4.0 2.1 1 4.4 10.2 8.3 5.3 2.7 2 3.9 6.6 5.9 3.7 3 3.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Escaldes down, Casa de Portugal across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 634 1a Divisió matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1a Divisió matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Sporting Escaldes at home: 1.00 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 3). Casa de Portugal away: 1.00 scored, 4.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Sporting Escaldes, 1.96 for Casa de Portugal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1a Divisió this season · since 6 Sept

SPORTING ESCALDES

LLLLW1–2 · 1–4 · 1–5 · 0–2 · 1–0

CASA DE PORTUGAL

DLLLW1–1 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 0–5 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Santa Coloma	5	+17	15
2	Inter Club d'Escaldes	5	+12	13
3	Ordino	5	−5	9
4	Atlètic Club d'Escaldes	5	+4	8
5	Ranger's	5	0	7
6	Esperança d'Andorra	5	+2	5
7	Penya Encarnada	5	−5	5
8	Casa de Portugal	5	−6	4
9	Sporting Escaldes	5	−9	3
10	Carroi	5	−10	1