Ranger's v Ordino prediction · 1a Divisió

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Ranger's 0–1 Ordino RANGER'S WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ranger's win~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.275

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ranger's win at 68%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ranger's 68% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–21–12
1′KICK-OFF Ranger's v Ordino
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Ranger's win: 68% at kick-off, 58% now
40′We said Ranger's at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 56%. 0–0 · 56–31–14
43′We said Ranger's at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–32–14
45′HALF-TIME Ranger's 0–0 Ordino
46′SECOND HALF Ranger's 0–0 Ordino
52′Ordino find the net on 50′. 0–1. 0–1 · 20–30–51
52′We said Ranger's at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–30–51
52′⚽ GOAL · 50' Ranger's 0–1 Ordino
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Ranger's win: 68% at kick-off, 20% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Ordino win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Ranger's win 20%)
53′We said Ranger's at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–30–51
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Ranger's win: 68% at kick-off, 18% now
55′We said Ranger's at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 47–39–13
55′GOAL DISALLOWED · 55' Ordino
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Ranger's win: 68% at kick-off, 47% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Ranger's win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Ordino win 13%)
56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 3.2 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 47–40–13
60′We said Ranger's at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–43–13
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Ranger's win 41%)
65′We said Ranger's at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–49–12
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Ranger's win: 68% at kick-off, 38% now
71′Ordino find the net on 69′. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–26–67
71′⚽ GOAL · 69' Ranger's 0–1 Ordino
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Ranger's win: 68% at kick-off, 8% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Ordino win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 26%)
72′We said Ranger's at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–25–68
77′We said Ranger's at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
FTFULL TIME Ranger's 0–1 Ordino
FTRanger's 0–1 Ordino · Ranger's win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ranger's are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ranger's 68%, draw 20%, Ordino 12%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Ranger's v OrdinoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ranger's win68%

Draw20%

Ordino win12%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 5

VenueEstadi Comunal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ranger's

Ordino

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 1a Divisió

Last match: 10 Oct · 1a Divisió

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ranger's	4	+1	7
5	Ordino	4	−6	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ranger's winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:07 · locked at kick-off

68% The market–

Us68%

We make Ranger's a 68% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ranger's v Ordino~~2.30 – 0.86

~~Form · 1a Divisió this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 6~~4 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ranger's win

Published at 67%, 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ranger's win	68%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Ordino win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Ranger's or draw	88%	–	–
Ranger's clean sheet	43%	–	–
Ordino clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.0%

0123450 5.9 2.7 1 8.9 9.5 3.6 2 11.0 9.2 4.0 3 8.3 6.9 3.0 4 4.9 4.0 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Ranger's down, Ordino across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 629 1a Divisió matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1a Divisió matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ranger's at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ordino away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.30 goals for Ranger's, 0.86 for Ordino. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ORD 1–2 RAN · RAN 4–0 ORD · ORD 0–2 RAN · ORD 0–2 RAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1a Divisió this season · since 6 Sept

RANGER'S

DWLW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 3–0

ORDINO

WWLL2–1 · 3–2 · 0–4 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Santa Coloma	4	+16	12
2	Inter Club d'Escaldes	4	+10	10
3	Atlètic Club d'Escaldes	4	+6	8
4	Ranger's	4	+1	7
5	Ordino	4	−6	6
6	Esperança d'Andorra	4	+3	5
7	Penya Encarnada	4	−2	5
8	Casa de Portugal	4	−9	1
9	Carroi	4	−9	1
10	Sporting Escaldes	4	−10	0