Ranger's v Carroi prediction · 1a Divisió

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:33

Ranger's 3–0 Carroi RANGER'S WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ranger's win~~78%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.079

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.077

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ranger's win at 78%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ranger's 78% before kick-off, 79% now. 0–0 · 79–14–7
5′2′ and it is 1–0: Ranger's have scored. 1–0 · 93–5–2
9′2′ and it is 1–0: Ranger's have scored. 1–0 · 93–6–2
13′We said Ranger's at 78% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–0 · 92–6–2
29′We said Ranger's at 78% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–0 · 92–7–2
33′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 91–7–2
41′Ranger's find the net on 36′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Ranger's win: 78% at kick-off, 99% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Ranger's win: 78% at kick-off, 92% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Ranger's win: 78% at kick-off, 99% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Ranger's win: 78% at kick-off, 92% now
44′Ranger's find the net on 36′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Ranger's win: 78% at kick-off, 99% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Ranger's win: 78% at kick-off, 92% now
45′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
47′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
48′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
49′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Ranger's win: 78% at kick-off, 99% now
50′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Ranger's win: 78% at kick-off, 99% now
51′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Ranger's win: 78% at kick-off, 99% now
52′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Ranger's win: 78% at kick-off, 99% now
53′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Ranger's win: 78% at kick-off, 99% now
55′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
56′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
57′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
58′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
59′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
60′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
61′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
62′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
63′SECOND HALF Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
70′⚽ GOAL · 71' Ranger's 2–0 Carroi
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Ranger's 3–0 Carroi
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Ranger's 3–0 Carroi
FTFULL TIME Ranger's 3–0 Carroi
FTRanger's 3–0 Carroi · Ranger's win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ranger's win78%

Draw16%

Carroi win7%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:00

VenueEstadi Comunal

Line-ups

Ranger's

Carroi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ranger's

Carroi

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ranger's	3	−2	4
9	Carroi	3	−6	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ranger's

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Alcaraz

3 A. Cistero

7 J. Nava

9 A. Sanchez

10 L. Prieto

11 Z. Munoz

12 D. Crespo

19 D. Segura

21 E. Jimenez

22 E. de Pablos

27 I. Alvarez

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · I. Gonzalez

14 · I. Fernandez

16 · A. Baldrich

17 · Gaby

20 · A. Amoros

23 · J. De Lucio

Carroi

Formation not confirmed

69 C. Santis

11 K. Garces

14 R. Pumarola

2 N. Baileyegn

17 B. Diarra

19 K. Dagnet

20 M. Kassama

21 M. Grimm

22 D. Traore

23 S. Diawara

28 K. Otto

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · R. Garcia

15 · O. Santillan

4 · A. Hobley

9 · F. Omar

45 · E. Garrigos

77 · A. Traore

95 · A. Dias

Our number · ranger's winPublished 11 Oct 10:06

78% The market78%

Us78%

~~Market~~78%

We make Ranger's a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 2.6–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ranger's win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ranger's win	78%	78%	0
Draw	16%	14%	+2
Carroi win	7%	8%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	63%	64%	−1
Both teams to score	44%	44%	0
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	44%	−3
Ranger's or draw	93%	92%	+2
Ranger's clean sheet	53%	–	–
Carroi clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.9%

0123450 5.1 1 9.4 7.3 2.2 2 12.9 8.1 2.7 3 11.1 6.9 2.3 4 7.3 4.5 5 4.0 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ranger's down, Carroi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 625 1a Divisió matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1a Divisió matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ranger's at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Carroi away: 0.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.63 goals for Ranger's, 0.65 for Carroi. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~CAR 1–2 RAN · CAR 0–3 RAN · RAN 3–0 CAR · CAR 0–1 RAN

Form · last six in 1a Divisió

RANGER'S

LWWDWL3–5 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3

CARROI

LLWLLD1–2 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Club d'Escaldes	4	+10	10
2	FC Santa Coloma	3	+11	9
3	Atlètic Club d'Escaldes	3	+6	7
4	Ordino	4	−6	6
5	Esperança d'Andorra	3	+3	4
6	Ranger's	3	−2	4
7	Penya Encarnada	3	−4	2
8	Casa de Portugal	3	−4	1
9	Carroi	3	−6	1
10	Sporting Escaldes	3	−8	0