Penya Encarnada v Sporting Escaldes prediction · 1a Divisió

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Penya Encarnada 2–0 Sporting Escaldes PENYA ENCARNADA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Penya Encarnada win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.276

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Penya Encarnada win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: Penya Encarnada was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–19
1′KICK-OFF Penya Encarnada v Sporting Escaldes
2′Much as we predicted: Penya Encarnada was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–21–19
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Penya Encarnada 1–0 Sporting Escaldes
19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Sporting Escaldes
23′Penya Encarnada find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Penya Encarnada win: 57% at kick-off, 80% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Penya Encarnada win: 57% at kick-off, 59% now
24′Penya Encarnada find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Penya Encarnada win: 57% at kick-off, 80% now
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Penya Encarnada 2–0 Sporting Escaldes
45′A goal for Penya Encarnada on 32′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Penya Encarnada win: 57% at kick-off, 96% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Penya Encarnada win: 57% at kick-off, 80% now
45′HALF-TIME Penya Encarnada 2–0 Sporting Escaldes
46′SECOND HALF Penya Encarnada 2–0 Sporting Escaldes
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Penya Encarnada
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Penya Encarnada
FTFULL TIME Penya Encarnada 2–0 Sporting Escaldes
FTPenya Encarnada 2–0 Sporting Escaldes · Penya Encarnada win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Penya Encarnada win57%

Draw23%

Sporting Escaldes win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueEstadi Nacional

Line-ups

Penya Encarnada

Sporting Escaldes

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Penya Encarnada

Sporting Escaldes

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Penya Encarnada	3	−4	2
10	Sporting Escaldes	3	−8	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Penya Encarnada

Formation not confirmed

41 M. Olmo

2 D. Sanchez

3 F. Rabago

5 F. Molina

7 S. Colina

8 J. Garcia

10 D. Hady

16 A. Moyano

19 S. Andreu

27 I. Pinilla

33 Guilherme Quichini

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · L. Ferreiro

6 · E. Mateu

11 · S. Pimentel

20 · H. Agharbi

38 · G. Estrada

Sporting Escaldes

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Deville

3 C. Ramirez

5 A. Tame

15 M. J. Freitas Goncalves

16 C. Genes

18 Xexi

19 A. Sanchez

22 S. Santos

27 E. Vargas

29 A. Serrokh

75 A. Alfaiate

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · R. Goncalves

6 · A. Rente

7 · E. Balentin

11 · D. Rojas Gomez

17 · F. Serra

20 · A. Arreola

23 · L. Salguero

30 · G. A. Giglio

47 · A. Mpata

Our number · penya encarnada winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Penya Encarnada a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Penya Encarnada win	57%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Sporting Escaldes win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Penya Encarnada or draw	80%	–	–
Penya Encarnada clean sheet	35%	–	–
Sporting Escaldes clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 6.2 3.8 2.9 1 7.7 10.6 5.2 2.0 2 8.7 9.0 5.0 3 6.0 6.1 3.3 4 3.3 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Penya Encarnada down, Sporting Escaldes across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 625 1a Divisió matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1a Divisió matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Penya Encarnada at home: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting Escaldes away: 0.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Penya Encarnada, 1.10 for Sporting Escaldes. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 1a Divisió

PENYA ENCARNADA

WLLDLD1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 2–2

SPORTING ESCALDES

LLLLL1–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Club d'Escaldes	4	+10	10
2	FC Santa Coloma	3	+11	9
3	Atlètic Club d'Escaldes	3	+6	7
4	Ordino	4	−6	6
5	Esperança d'Andorra	3	+3	4
6	Ranger's	3	−2	4
7	Penya Encarnada	3	−4	2
8	Casa de Portugal	3	−4	1
9	Carroi	3	−6	1
10	Sporting Escaldes	3	−8	0