Penya Encarnada v Esperança d'Andorra prediction · 1a Divisió

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Penya EncarnadaDrawEsperança d'Andorra

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Penya Encarnada 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Penya Encarnada are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Penya Encarnada 43%, draw 28%, Esperança d'Andorra 29%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Penya Encarnada v Esperança d'AndorraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Penya Encarnada win43%

Draw28%

Esperança d'Andorra win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueEstadi Nacional

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Penya Encarnada

Esperança d'Andorra

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 1a Divisió

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Esperança d'Andorra	5	+2	5
7	Penya Encarnada	5	−5	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · penya encarnada winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Penya Encarnada a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Penya Encarnada v Esperança d'Andorra~~1.49 – 1.16

~~Form · 1a Divisió this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 5~~7 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Penya Encarnada win	43%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Esperança d'Andorra win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Penya Encarnada or draw	71%	–	–
Penya Encarnada clean sheet	32%	–	–
Esperança d'Andorra clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.9 7.2 4.9 2.0 1 9.3 12.9 6.7 2.7 2 7.7 8.6 4.9 3 4.0 4.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Penya Encarnada down, Esperança d'Andorra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 634 1a Divisió matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1a Divisió matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.78 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Penya Encarnada at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Esperança d'Andorra away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Penya Encarnada, 1.16 for Esperança d'Andorra. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.78

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ESP 0–1 PEN · PEN 1–0 ESP · ESP 0–1 PEN · PEN 4–1 ESP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1a Divisió this season · since 6 Sept

PENYA ENCARNADA

DLDWL1–1 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–3

ESPERANÇA D'ANDORRA

DLWDL2–2 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Santa Coloma	5	+17	15
2	Inter Club d'Escaldes	5	+12	13
3	Ordino	5	−5	9
4	Atlètic Club d'Escaldes	5	+4	8
5	Ranger's	5	0	7
6	Esperança d'Andorra	5	+2	5
7	Penya Encarnada	5	−5	5
8	Casa de Portugal	5	−6	4
9	Sporting Escaldes	5	−9	3
10	Carroi	5	−10	1