Ordino v Carroi prediction · 1a Divisió

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

OrdinoDrawCarroi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ordino 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ordino are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ordino 57%, draw 25%, Carroi 17%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Ordino v CarroiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ordino win57%

Draw25%

Carroi win17%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueEstadi Nacional

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ordino

Carroi

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 1a Divisió

Last match: 18 Oct · 1a Divisió

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Ordino	5	−5	9
10	Carroi	5	−10	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ordino winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

57% The market55%

Us57%

~~Market~~55%

We make Ordino a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ordino v Carroi~~1.81 – 0.89

~~Form · 1a Divisió this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L2 · W0 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 1~~3 v 10

~~The market · Ordino win~~55% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ordino win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ordino win	57%	55%	+2
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Carroi win	17%	21%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	50%	53%	−3
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	31%	−2
Ordino or draw	83%	79%	+4
Ordino clean sheet	42%	–	–
Carroi clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 8.5 5.0 2.8 1 11.2 11.7 4.7 2 10.8 9.3 4.2 3 6.6 5.6 2.5 4 3.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ordino down, Carroi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 635 1a Divisió matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1a Divisió matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ordino at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Carroi away: 0.17 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Ordino, 0.89 for Carroi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ORD 5–0 CAR · CAR 3–1 ORD · ORD 3–1 CAR · ORD 1–1 CAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1a Divisió this season · since 5 Sept

ORDINO

WWLLW2–1 · 3–2 · 0–4 · 0–4 · 1–0

CARROI

LLDLL0–3 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Santa Coloma	5	+17	15
2	Inter Club d'Escaldes	5	+12	13
3	Ordino	5	−5	9
4	Atlètic Club d'Escaldes	5	+4	8
5	Ranger's	5	0	7
6	Esperança d'Andorra	5	+2	5
7	Penya Encarnada	5	−5	5
8	Casa de Portugal	6	−6	5
9	Sporting Escaldes	6	−9	4
10	Carroi	5	−10	1