FC Santa Coloma v Casa de Portugal prediction · 1a Divisió

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

FC Santa Coloma 5–0 Casa de Portugal FC SANTA COLOMA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Santa Coloma win~~75%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.095

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.100

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Santa Coloma win at 75%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Santa Coloma 75% before kick-off, 79% now. 0–0 · 79–13–8
1′KICK-OFF FC Santa Coloma v Casa de Portugal
2′Little has changed for our model: FC Santa Coloma 75% before kick-off, 79% now. 0–0 · 79–14–8
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Casa de Portugal
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' FC Santa Coloma 1–0 Casa de Portugal
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Casa de Portugal
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Casa de Portugal
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' FC Santa Coloma 2–0 Casa de Portugal
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Casa de Portugal
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' FC Santa Coloma
45′HALF-TIME FC Santa Coloma 2–0 Casa de Portugal
46′SECOND HALF FC Santa Coloma 2–0 Casa de Portugal
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Casa de Portugal
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' FC Santa Coloma 3–0 Casa de Portugal
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Casa de Portugal
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' FC Santa Coloma
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' FC Santa Coloma 4–0 Casa de Portugal
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Casa de Portugal
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' FC Santa Coloma 5–0 Casa de Portugal
FTFULL TIME FC Santa Coloma 5–0 Casa de Portugal
FTFC Santa Coloma 5–0 Casa de Portugal · FC Santa Coloma win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FC Santa Coloma win75%

Draw16%

Casa de Portugal win9%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueEstadi Comunal

Line-ups

FC Santa Coloma

Casa de Portugal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Santa Coloma

Casa de Portugal

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	FC Santa Coloma	3	+11	9
8	Casa de Portugal	3	−4	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Santa Coloma

Formation not confirmed

13 G. San Nicolas

2 A. Rasines

4 Guti

6 M. Lopez

9 P. D. Munoz Martinez

10 G. Lopez

11 Abreu

14 R. Cabral

16 D. Andrade

18 A. Arjona

23 M. San Nicolas

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · J. Lagunas

5 · J. Armengol

8 · I. Barrenetxea

15 · A. Serrano

19 · M. Abreu

20 · J. Rubio

22 · A. Gomez

25 · T. Vallotti

92 · Nguesso

Casa de Portugal

Formation not confirmed

13 A. Ruiz

3 R. Ahumada

6 E. Vales

7 X. Puerto Bellart

9 F. de Jesus

19 S. Sanchez

21 J. Miranda

23 A. Cosialls

26 I. Combes

30 J. Ferreira

77 M. Tutu

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · E. Tame

1 · Josep Antoni

5 · M. Vaamonde

8 · I. Guzman

10 · D. Corominas

11 · J. Betriu

70 · Monsif

90 · D. Messoussi

99 · Cucu

Our number · fc santa coloma winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

75% The market74%

Us75%

~~Market~~74%

We make FC Santa Coloma a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.8–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc santa coloma win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Santa Coloma win	75%	74%	+1
Draw	16%	16%	0
Casa de Portugal win	9%	10%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	67%	69%	−2
Both teams to score	49%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	86%	86%	0
Over 3.5 goals	46%	49%	−3
FC Santa Coloma or draw	91%	90%	+1
FC Santa Coloma clean sheet	47%	–	–
Casa de Portugal clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.7%

0123450 4.6 1 7.7 7.4 2.7 2 10.7 8.0 3.3 3 9.3 6.7 2.7 4 6.5 4.6 5 4.0 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Santa Coloma down, Casa de Portugal across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 625 1a Divisió matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1a Divisió matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

FC Santa Coloma at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Casa de Portugal away: 2.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

2.78 goals for FC Santa Coloma, 0.78 for Casa de Portugal. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 1a Divisió

FC SANTA COLOMA

DLLWWW0–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 5–1

CASA DE PORTUGAL

DLL1–1 · 2–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Club d'Escaldes	4	+10	10
2	FC Santa Coloma	3	+11	9
3	Atlètic Club d'Escaldes	3	+6	7
4	Ordino	4	−6	6
5	Esperança d'Andorra	3	+3	4
6	Ranger's	3	−2	4
7	Penya Encarnada	3	−4	2
8	Casa de Portugal	3	−4	1
9	Carroi	3	−6	1
10	Sporting Escaldes	3	−8	0