Esperança d'Andorra v FC Santa Coloma prediction · 1a Divisió

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Esperança d'Andorra 1–2 FC Santa Coloma FC SANTA COLOMA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Santa Coloma win~~73%

~~The market said~~85%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.110

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.037

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Santa Coloma win at 73%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Santa Coloma 73% before kick-off, 73% now. 0–0 · 9–18–73
1′KICK-OFF Esperança d'Andorra v FC Santa Coloma
15′Esperança d'Andorra score on 14′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 30–24–46
15′We said FC Santa Coloma at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 1–0 · 30–24–46
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Esperança d'Andorra 1–0 FC Santa Coloma
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' FC Santa Coloma win: 73% at kick-off, 46% now
18′GOAL DISALLOWED · 18' Esperança d'Andorra
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' FC Santa Coloma win: 73% at kick-off, 69% now
24′FC Santa Coloma score on 23′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 3–8–89
24′We said FC Santa Coloma at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 0–1 · 3–8–89
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Esperança d'Andorra 0–1 FC Santa Coloma
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' FC Santa Coloma win: 73% at kick-off, 89% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 3–8–89
45′HALF-TIME Esperança d'Andorra 0–1 FC Santa Coloma
46′SECOND HALF Esperança d'Andorra 0–1 FC Santa Coloma
65′We said FC Santa Coloma at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' FC Santa Coloma win: 73% at kick-off, 93% now
82′We said FC Santa Coloma at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
85′FC Santa Coloma find the net on 85′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
85′We said FC Santa Coloma at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Esperança d'Andorra 0–2 FC Santa Coloma
90′A goal for Esperança d'Andorra on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+8' Esperança d'Andorra 1–2 FC Santa Coloma
FTFULL TIME Esperança d'Andorra 1–2 FC Santa Coloma
FTEsperança d'Andorra 1–2 FC Santa Coloma · FC Santa Coloma win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Santa Coloma are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Esperança d'Andorra 9%, draw 17%, FC Santa Coloma 73%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Esperança d'Andorra v FC Santa ColomaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Esperança d'Andorra win9%

Draw17%

FC Santa Coloma win73%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Esperança d'Andorra

FC Santa Coloma

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 1a Divisió

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc santa coloma winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

73% The market85%

Us73%

~~Market~~85%

We make FC Santa Coloma a 73% chance to win. The market has them at 85%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Esperança d'Andorra v FC Santa Coloma~~0.78 – 2.51

~~Form · 1a Divisió this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L1 · W4 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 12~~6 v 1

~~The market · FC Santa Coloma win~~85% · ours 73%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Santa Coloma win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 85% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Esperança d'Andorra win	9%	3%	+6
Draw	17%	12%	+5
FC Santa Coloma win	73%	85%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	63%	65%	−2
Both teams to score	49%	34%	+15
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	45%	−4
Esperança d'Andorra or draw	27%	15%	+12
Esperança d'Andorra clean sheet	9%	–	–
FC Santa Coloma clean sheet	47%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.7%

0123450 5.0 8.9 11.7 9.6 6.1 3.21 2.2 8.1 8.7 7.2 4.5 2.32 2.9 3.5 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Esperança d'Andorra down, FC Santa Coloma across0–5 goals a side shown (95.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 630 1a Divisió matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1a Divisió matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.89 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Esperança d'Andorra at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). FC Santa Coloma away: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.78 goals for Esperança d'Andorra, 2.51 for FC Santa Coloma. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.89

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~FCS 4–0 ESP · ESP 0–2 FCS · FCS 0–0 ESP · FCS 4–0 ESP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1a Divisió this season · since 5 Sept

ESPERANÇA D'ANDORRA

DLWD2–2 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 1–1

FC SANTA COLOMA

WWWW3–0 · 4–0 · 5–1 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Santa Coloma	4	+16	12
2	Inter Club d'Escaldes	4	+10	10
3	Ordino	5	−5	9
4	Atlètic Club d'Escaldes	4	+6	8
5	Ranger's	5	0	7
6	Esperança d'Andorra	4	+3	5
7	Penya Encarnada	4	−2	5
8	Casa de Portugal	4	−9	1
9	Carroi	4	−9	1
10	Sporting Escaldes	4	−10	0