Casa de Portugal v Penya Encarnada prediction · 1a Divisió

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Casa de Portugal 3–0 Penya Encarnada PENYA ENCARNADA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Penya Encarnada win~~43%

~~The market said~~18%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.746

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.256

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Penya Encarnada win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Penya Encarnada was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 30–27–43
1′KICK-OFF Casa de Portugal v Penya Encarnada
13′Casa de Portugal find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 58–21–21
13′We said Penya Encarnada at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–0 · 58–21–21
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Casa de Portugal 1–0 Penya Encarnada
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Penya Encarnada win: 43% at kick-off, 21% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Casa de Portugal win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Penya Encarnada win 21%)
17′A goal for Casa de Portugal on 17′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 80–12–8
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Casa de Portugal 2–0 Penya Encarnada
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Penya Encarnada win: 43% at kick-off, 8% now
18′We said Penya Encarnada at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 2–0 · 80–12–7
37′We said Penya Encarnada at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–10–4
41′A red card for Penya Encarnada on 41′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 87–10–4
41′🟥 RED CARD · 41' Penya Encarnada
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Penya Encarnada win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
45′HALF-TIME Casa de Portugal 2–0 Penya Encarnada
46′SECOND HALF Casa de Portugal 2–0 Penya Encarnada
51′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 2–0 · 90–8–2
73′Casa de Portugal score on 73′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Casa de Portugal 3–0 Penya Encarnada
FTFULL TIME Casa de Portugal 3–0 Penya Encarnada
FTCasa de Portugal 3–0 Penya Encarnada · Penya Encarnada win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Penya Encarnada are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Casa de Portugal 30%, draw 27%, Penya Encarnada 43%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Casa de Portugal v Penya EncarnadaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Casa de Portugal win30%

Draw27%

Penya Encarnada win43%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Casa de Portugal

Penya Encarnada

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 1a Divisió

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Penya Encarnada	4	−2	5
9	Casa de Portugal	4	−9	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · penya encarnada winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market18%

Us43%

~~Market~~18%

We make Penya Encarnada a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 18%. We are 25 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Casa de Portugal v Penya Encarnada~~1.27 – 1.59

~~Form · 1a Divisió this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 5~~9 v 7

~~The market · Penya Encarnada win~~18% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Penya Encarnada win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 18% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Casa de Portugal win	30%	59%	−29
Draw	27%	23%	+4
Penya Encarnada win	43%	18%	+25
Over 2.5 goals	54%	58%	−4
Both teams to score	56%	56%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	38%	−6
Casa de Portugal or draw	57%	82%	−25
Casa de Portugal clean sheet	22%	–	–
Penya Encarnada clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.8 8.0 7.2 3.9 1 6.2 12.2 8.3 4.5 2 4.8 7.0 5.2 2.8 3 2.2 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Casa de Portugal down, Penya Encarnada across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 630 1a Divisió matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1a Divisió matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Casa de Portugal at home: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). Penya Encarnada away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Casa de Portugal, 1.59 for Penya Encarnada. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1a Divisió this season · since 6 Sept

CASA DE PORTUGAL

DLLL1–1 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 0–5

PENYA ENCARNADA

DLDW1–1 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Santa Coloma	4	+16	12
2	Inter Club d'Escaldes	4	+10	10
3	Ordino	5	−5	9
4	Atlètic Club d'Escaldes	4	+6	8
5	Ranger's	5	0	7
6	Esperança d'Andorra	4	+3	5
7	Penya Encarnada	4	−2	5
8	Sporting Escaldes	5	−9	3
9	Casa de Portugal	4	−9	1
10	Carroi	5	−10	1