Carroi v Sporting Escaldes prediction · 1a Divisió

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:32

Carroi 0–1 Sporting Escaldes CARROI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Carroi win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.714

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Carroi win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Carroi 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–32
1′KICK-OFF Carroi v Sporting Escaldes
45′HALF-TIME Carroi 0–0 Sporting Escaldes
46′SECOND HALF Carroi 0–0 Sporting Escaldes
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Carroi win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Carroi win 34%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Carroi win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 31–44–25
57′We said Carroi at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–45–25
59′We said Carroi at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–24
68′We said Carroi at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–20
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Carroi win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
75′We said Carroi at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
80′We said Carroi at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Carroi win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
84′We said Carroi at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
88′A goal for Sporting Escaldes on 88′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–6–94
88′We said Carroi at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–6–94
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Carroi 0–1 Sporting Escaldes
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Carroi win: 42% at kick-off, under 1% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Sporting Escaldes win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
FTFULL TIME Carroi 0–1 Sporting Escaldes
FTCarroi 0–1 Sporting Escaldes · Carroi win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Carroi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Carroi 42%, draw 27%, Sporting Escaldes 32%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Carroi v Sporting EscaldesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Carroi win42%

Draw27%

Sporting Escaldes win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Carroi

Sporting Escaldes

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 1a Divisió

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Carroi	4	−9	1
10	Sporting Escaldes	4	−10	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · carroi winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Carroi a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Carroi v Sporting Escaldes~~1.58 – 1.34

~~Form · 1a Divisió this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L3 · W0 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 1 v 0~~9 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Carroi win	42%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Sporting Escaldes win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Carroi or draw	68%	–	–
Carroi clean sheet	28%	–	–
Sporting Escaldes clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.5 6.1 4.9 2.3 1 7.5 12.1 7.2 3.4 2 6.8 8.3 5.5 2.6 3 3.6 4.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Carroi down, Sporting Escaldes across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 630 1a Divisió matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1a Divisió matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Carroi at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting Escaldes away: 0.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Carroi, 1.34 for Sporting Escaldes. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1a Divisió this season · since 5 Sept

CARROI

LLDL0–3 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–3

SPORTING ESCALDES

LLLL1–2 · 1–4 · 1–5 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Santa Coloma	4	+16	12
2	Inter Club d'Escaldes	4	+10	10
3	Ordino	5	−5	9
4	Atlètic Club d'Escaldes	4	+6	8
5	Ranger's	5	0	7
6	Esperança d'Andorra	4	+3	5
7	Penya Encarnada	4	−2	5
8	Casa de Portugal	4	−9	1
9	Carroi	4	−9	1
10	Sporting Escaldes	4	−10	0