Atlètic Club d'Escaldes v Esperança d'Andorra prediction · 1a Divisió

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 1–1 Esperança d'Andorra ATLÈTIC CLUB D'ESCALDES WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.243

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win at 74%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atlètic Club d'Escaldes was 74% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 76–15–9
21′15′ and it is 0–1: Esperança d'Andorra have scored. 0–1 · 44–26–30
30′15′ and it is 0–1: Esperança d'Andorra have scored. 0–1 · 38–28–33
45′We said Atlètic Club d'Escaldes at 74%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–31–41
65′We said Atlètic Club d'Escaldes at 74%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–30–56
86′We said Atlètic Club d'Escaldes at 74%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win: 74% at kick-off, 28% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win: 74% at kick-off, 1% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 1–1 Esperança d'Andorra
90′🟨 YELLOW · 99' Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
90′🟨 YELLOW · 100' Esperança d'Andorra
FTFULL TIME Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 1–1 Esperança d'Andorra
FTAtlètic Club d'Escaldes 1–1 Esperança d'Andorra · Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win74%

Draw17%

Esperança d'Andorra win8%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:00

VenueEstadi Comunal

Line-ups

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes

Esperança d'Andorra

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes

Esperança d'Andorra

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Atlètic Club d'Escaldes	3	+6	7
5	Esperança d'Andorra	3	+3	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes

Formation not confirmed

1 Adri

3 D. Fondarella

4 C. Garcia

5 Chinchu

6 E. da Silva Santos

7 J. Barragan

8 J. L. Assoubre

9 B. Morales

14 H. Bouharma

21 J. Sanmarful

49 A. Gallego

Coach · Cristian Barea Ortiz

Substitutes

30 · Pacho

10 · G. Vieira

11 · D. Valero

15 · S. Rodriguez

16 · A. Martinez

17 · B. Sohaib

19 · Didi

22 · K. Soro

23 · M. Renoud

Esperança d'Andorra

Formation not confirmed

31 J. Bejarano

2 J. Mutis

6 J. Bernal

7 A. Garrido

8 M. Boutarfa

15 E. Cuellar

21 M. Fernandez

22 J. Duce

23 P. Ingles

33 R. Moreno

80 T. Neves

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · Xisco Pires

5 · M. Del Castillo

9 · E. Balastegui

10 · I. El Kabbou

11 · O. Salomon

14 · G. Carrau

17 · I. Quiroga

18 · Uile

19 · K. Olah

Our number · atlètic club d'escaldes winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

74% The market–

Us74%

We make Atlètic Club d'Escaldes a 74% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win	74%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Esperança d'Andorra win	8%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes or draw	92%	–	–
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes clean sheet	48%	–	–
Esperança d'Andorra clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.8%

0123450 5.2 2.0 1 8.9 8.0 2.7 2 11.8 8.6 3.3 3 9.9 7.2 2.7 4 6.3 4.6 5 3.3 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlètic Club d'Escaldes down, Esperança d'Andorra across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 625 1a Divisió matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1a Divisió matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Esperança d'Andorra away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.53 goals for Atlètic Club d'Escaldes, 0.75 for Esperança d'Andorra. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ATL 2–1 ESP · ATL 3–0 ESP · ESP 0–1 ATL · ATL 5–1 ESP

Form · last six in 1a Divisió

ATLÈTIC CLUB D'ESCALDES

WLWDWW3–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 3–0

ESPERANÇA D'ANDORRA

DWWDLW2–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Club d'Escaldes	4	+10	10
2	FC Santa Coloma	3	+11	9
3	Atlètic Club d'Escaldes	3	+6	7
4	Ordino	4	−6	6
5	Esperança d'Andorra	3	+3	4
6	Ranger's	3	−2	4
7	Penya Encarnada	3	−4	2
8	Casa de Portugal	3	−4	1
9	Carroi	3	−6	1
10	Sporting Escaldes	3	−8	0