WA Mostaganem v RC Kouba prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 17:54

WA Mostaganem 0–0 RC Kouba RC KOUBA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said RC Kouba win~~45%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.830

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.727

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said RC Kouba win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: RC Kouba 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 27–28–45
1′KICK-OFF WA Mostaganem v RC Kouba
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was RC Kouba win 36%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' RC Kouba win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
45′HALF-TIME WA Mostaganem 0–0 RC Kouba
45′SECOND HALF WA Mostaganem 0–0 RC Kouba
49′We said RC Kouba at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 22–45–33
59′We said RC Kouba at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 19–53–29
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' RC Kouba win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
66′We said RC Kouba at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 16–59–24
73′We said RC Kouba at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 13–68–19
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' RC Kouba win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
79′We said RC Kouba at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 9–77–14
83′We said RC Kouba at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 6–84–9
90′We said RC Kouba at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' RC Kouba win: 45% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME WA Mostaganem 0–0 RC Kouba
FTWA Mostaganem 0–0 RC Kouba · RC Kouba win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on WA Mostaganem v RC KoubaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 14:19 · locked at kick-off

WA Mostaganem win28%

Draw26%

RC Kouba win45%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

WA Mostaganem

RC Kouba

5Days since last match6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	RC Kouba	4	10	12
10	WA Mostaganem	4	0	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rc kouba winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 14:19 · locked at kick-off

45% The market44%

Us45%

~~Market~~44%

We make RC Kouba a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · WA Mostaganem v RC Kouba~~0.95 – 1.34

~~Last six in Ligue 2~~W1 D2 L3 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 12~~10 v 2

~~The market · RC Kouba win~~44% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rc kouba win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
WA Mostaganem win	28%	25%	+3
Draw	26%	31%	−5
RC Kouba win	45%	44%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	40%	38%	+2
Both teams to score	42%	45%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	65%	63%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	20%	20%	+1
WA Mostaganem or draw	55%	56%	−2
WA Mostaganem clean sheet	28%	–	–
RC Kouba clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.4 13.8 8.7 4.2 1 10.7 11.6 7.7 3.5 2 5.0 5.9 3.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+WA Mostaganem down, RC Kouba across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,469 Ligue 2 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.9% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

WA Mostaganem at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). RC Kouba away: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for WA Mostaganem, 1.34 for RC Kouba. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~WAM 2–1 RCK · RCK 1–0 WAM · WAM 2–1 RCK · RCK 3–2 WAM

Form · last six in Ligue 2

WA MOSTAGANEM

LLDLWD1–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–1

RC KOUBA

WWWWWW1–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Blida	5	6	13
2	RC Kouba	4	10	12
3	GC Mascara	5	6	11
4	MC Saida	4	3	10
5	ASM Oran	5	6	9
6	Usm El Harrach	4	1	7
7	Mostaganem	5	0	7
8	Sidi Benali	5	-2	7
9	Hussein Dey	5	1	6
10	WA Mostaganem	4	0	5
11	WA Tlemcen	4	-3	4
12	Koléa	4	-4	3
13	El Bayadh	5	-5	2
14	Tiaret	5	-5	1
15	Taghit	5	-11	1
16	RC Arba	1	-3	0