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Usm El Harrach v RC Arba

Usm El Harrach
3–1Full time
RC Arba

Ligue 2 · THU 15 OCT

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 17:30
Usm El Harrach 3–1 RC Arba USM EL HARRACH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Usm El Harrach win70%
The market said73%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.133
The market’s Brier score0.117

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Usm El Harrach win at 70%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Usm El Harrach v RC Arba
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Usm El Harrach 70% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 71–19–10
  4. 28′A goal for Usm El Harrach on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 89–9–2
  5. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Usm El Harrach 1–0 RC Arba
  6. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Usm El Harrach win: 70% at kick-off, 89% now
  7. 29′We said Usm El Harrach at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–0 · 89–9–2
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 89–9–2
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Usm El Harrach 1–1 RC Arba
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Usm El Harrach 1–1 RC Arba
  11. 47′RC Arba score on 45′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 53–36–11
  12. 47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Usm El Harrach 1–1 RC Arba
  13. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Usm El Harrach win: 70% at kick-off, 53% now
  14. 48′We said Usm El Harrach at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 1–1 · 53–37–11
  15. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Usm El Harrach win: 70% at kick-off, 50% now
  16. 53′We said Usm El Harrach at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–40–11
  17. 59′We said Usm El Harrach at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–46–10
  18. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Usm El Harrach win 42%)
  19. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Usm El Harrach win: 70% at kick-off, 40% now
  20. 65′We said Usm El Harrach at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–52–9
  21. 70′We said Usm El Harrach at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–58–8
  22. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Usm El Harrach win: 70% at kick-off, 30% now
  23. 74′We said Usm El Harrach at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–64–7
  24. 77′Usm El Harrach find the net on 76′. 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
  25. 77′We said Usm El Harrach at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–1 · 94–6–0
  26. 77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Usm El Harrach 2–1 RC Arba
  27. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Usm El Harrach win: 70% at kick-off, 94% now
  28. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Usm El Harrach win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
  29. 78′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 94–6–0
  30. 80′We said Usm El Harrach at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  31. 83′A goal for Usm El Harrach on 83′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  32. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Usm El Harrach 3–1 RC Arba
  33. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Usm El Harrach win: 70% at kick-off, over 99% now
  34. 84′We said Usm El Harrach at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  35. 85′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  36. FTFULL TIME Usm El Harrach 3–1 RC Arba
  37. FTUsm El Harrach 3–1 RC Arba · Usm El Harrach win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Usm El Harrach are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Usm El Harrach 70%, draw 18%, RC Arba 11%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Usm El Harrach v RC ArbaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Usm El Harrach win70%
Draw18%
RC Arba win11%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Usm El Harrach

RC Arba

7Days since last match159
2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Usm El Harrach4+17
16RC Arba1−30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · usm el harrach winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off
70% The market73%
Us70%
Market73%

We make Usm El Harrach a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Usm El Harrach v RC Arba2.10 – 0.62
Table places · points 7 v 06 v 16
The market · Usm El Harrach win73% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80%85%90% 9 OCT 07:1815 OCT 14:33
Our probability · Usm El Harrach win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Usm El Harrach win70%73%−3
Draw18%20%−2
RC Arba win11%7%+4
Over 2.5 goals50%41%+9
Both teams to score39%28%+11
Over 1.5 goals73%65%+8
Over 3.5 goals29%21%+8
Usm El Harrach or draw89%93%−4
Usm El Harrach clean sheet54%––
RC Arba clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%
0123450 7.2 4.9 1 14.5 8.2 2.7 2 13.8 8.3 2.6 3 9.5 5.7 4 5.2 3.0 5 2.4
under 2% 5% 12%+Usm El Harrach down, RC Arba across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsRCA 2–0 USM · USM 2–1 RCA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 19 Sept

USM EL HARRACH

WDWL1–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 0–4

RC ARBA

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1RC Kouba5+1013
2Blida5+613
3GC Mascara5+611
4MC Saida4+310
5ASM Oran5+69
6Usm El Harrach4+17
7Mostaganem507
8Sidi Benali5−27
9Hussein Dey5+16
10WA Mostaganem506
11WA Tlemcen4−34
12Koléa4−43
13El Bayadh5−52
14Tiaret5−51
15Taghit5−111
16RC Arba1−30

The competition's standings before kick-off.