

Usm El Harrach v RC Arba
Usm El Harrach
RC ArbaLigue 2 · THU 15 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Usm El Harrach win at 70%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Usm El Harrach v RC Arba
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Usm El Harrach 70% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 71–19–10
- 28′A goal for Usm El Harrach on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 89–9–2
- 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Usm El Harrach 1–0 RC Arba
- 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Usm El Harrach win: 70% at kick-off, 89% now
- 29′We said Usm El Harrach at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–0 · 89–9–2
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 89–9–2
- 45′HALF-TIME Usm El Harrach 1–1 RC Arba
- 46′SECOND HALF Usm El Harrach 1–1 RC Arba
- 47′RC Arba score on 45′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 53–36–11
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Usm El Harrach 1–1 RC Arba
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Usm El Harrach win: 70% at kick-off, 53% now
- 48′We said Usm El Harrach at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 1–1 · 53–37–11
- 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Usm El Harrach win: 70% at kick-off, 50% now
- 53′We said Usm El Harrach at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–40–11
- 59′We said Usm El Harrach at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–46–10
- 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Usm El Harrach win 42%)
- 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Usm El Harrach win: 70% at kick-off, 40% now
- 65′We said Usm El Harrach at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–52–9
- 70′We said Usm El Harrach at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–58–8
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Usm El Harrach win: 70% at kick-off, 30% now
- 74′We said Usm El Harrach at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–64–7
- 77′Usm El Harrach find the net on 76′. 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
- 77′We said Usm El Harrach at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–1 · 94–6–0
- 77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Usm El Harrach 2–1 RC Arba
- 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Usm El Harrach win: 70% at kick-off, 94% now
- 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Usm El Harrach win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
- 78′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 94–6–0
- 80′We said Usm El Harrach at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
- 83′A goal for Usm El Harrach on 83′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Usm El Harrach 3–1 RC Arba
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Usm El Harrach win: 70% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 84′We said Usm El Harrach at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 85′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Usm El Harrach 3–1 RC Arba
- FTUsm El Harrach 3–1 RC Arba · Usm El Harrach win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassUsm El Harrach are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Usm El Harrach 70%, draw 18%, RC Arba 11%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 39%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off
Usm El Harrach win70%
RC Arba win11%Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 5
Match timeline
All events
Usm El HarrachMIN
RC ArbaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Usm El Harrach
RC Arba
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Usm El Harrach a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Usm El Harrach win | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | −2 |
| RC Arba win | 11% | 7% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 41% | +9 |
| Both teams to score | 39% | 28% | +11 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 65% | +8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 21% | +8 |
| Usm El Harrach or draw | 89% | 93% | −4 |
| Usm El Harrach clean sheet | 54% | – | – |
| RC Arba clean sheet | 14% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 19 Sept
USM EL HARRACH
RC ARBA
No matches in our record yet.
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RC Kouba | 5 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Blida | 5 | +6 | 13 |
| 3 | GC Mascara | 5 | +6 | 11 |
| 4 | MC Saida | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 5 | ASM Oran | 5 | +6 | 9 |
| 6 | Usm El Harrach | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Mostaganem | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Sidi Benali | 5 | −2 | 7 |
| 9 | Hussein Dey | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | WA Mostaganem | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | WA Tlemcen | 4 | −3 | 4 |
| 12 | Koléa | 4 | −4 | 3 |
| 13 | El Bayadh | 5 | −5 | 2 |
| 14 | Tiaret | 5 | −5 | 1 |
| 15 | Taghit | 5 | −11 | 1 |
| 16 | RC Arba | 1 | −3 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
RC Kouba
Blida
GC Mascara
MC Saida
ASM Oran
Mostaganem
Sidi Benali
Hussein Dey
WA Mostaganem
WA Tlemcen
Koléa
El Bayadh
Tiaret
Taghit