Usm El Harrach v El Bayadh prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:46

Usm El Harrach 0–0 El Bayadh USM EL HARRACH WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Usm El Harrach win~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.130

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Usm El Harrach are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Usm El Harrach 70%, draw 20%, El Bayadh 10%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 30%.

The AI’s read on Usm El Harrach v El BayadhBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Usm El Harrach win70%

Draw20%

El Bayadh win10%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Usm El Harrach

El Bayadh

5Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Usm El Harrach	6	+2	10
15	El Bayadh	6	−6	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · usm el harrach winFirst published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

70% The market–

Us70%

We make Usm El Harrach a 70% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.5, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Usm El Harrach v El Bayadh~~1.89 – 0.47

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 2~~6 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Usm El Harrach win	70%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
El Bayadh win	10%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	30%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Usm El Harrach or draw	90%	–	–
Usm El Harrach clean sheet	63%	–	–
El Bayadh clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.2%

0123450 10.6 5.3 1 18.2 7.8 2.1 2 15.6 7.1 3 9.8 4.3 4 5.0 2.1 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Usm El Harrach down, El Bayadh across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,491 Ligue 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Usm El Harrach at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). El Bayadh away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Usm El Harrach, 0.47 for El Bayadh. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ELB 1–0 USM · USM 1–3 ELB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 19 Sept

USM EL HARRACH

WDWLWL1–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 0–1

EL BAYADH

LDLDLL0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · West

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Blida	7	+9	17
2	RC Kouba	6	+10	14
3	GC Mascara	6	+7	14
4	MC Saida	6	+4	14
5	ASM Oran	6	+6	10
6	Usm El Harrach	6	+2	10
7	Mostaganem	6	+2	10
8	Sidi Benali	6	0	10
9	WA Tlemcen	6	−3	7
10	WA Mostaganem	6	−1	6
11	Hussein Dey	6	−2	6
12	Tiaret	6	+1	4
13	RC Arba	3	−4	3
14	Koléa	5	−6	3
15	El Bayadh	6	−6	2
16	Taghit	7	−19	1