Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1
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USM Annaba v US Chaouia

USM Annaba
3–0Full time
US Chaouia

Ligue 2 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 17:33
USM Annaba 3–0 US Chaouia USM ANNABA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said USM Annaba win45%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.451
The market’s Brier score0.429

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

USM Annaba win45%
Draw28%
US Chaouia win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · usm annaba winPublished 9 Oct 15:04
45% The market47%
Us45%
Market47%

We make USM Annaba a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:179 OCT 14:35
Our probability · usm annaba win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
USM Annaba win45%47%−2
Draw28%31%−3
US Chaouia win27%22%+5
Over 2.5 goals37%36%0
Both teams to score41%42%−1
Over 1.5 goals63%62%+1
Over 3.5 goals18%19%−1
USM Annaba or draw73%78%−5
USM Annaba clean sheet42%––
US Chaouia clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%
0123450 11.7 10.9 4.7 1 14.9 12.0 5.6 2 9.1 7.8 3.5 3 4.0 3.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+USM Annaba down, US Chaouia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting2.12
Over 2.53 of 8
Both scored2 of 8
Last meetingsUSM 1–0 USC · USC 0–0 USM · USM 1–2 USC · USC 3–2 USM

Form · last six in Ligue 2

USM ANNABA

LLLWLW0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

US CHAOUIA

DWLDLD1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1RC Kouba4+1012
2Blida3+37
3MC Saida3+27
4Usm El Harrach4+17
5USM Annaba3+36
6JSM Skikda3+26
7NC Magra3−16
8Azazga3+15
9MO Constantine3+15
10MSP Batna3+15
11Khroub3+15
12MO Bejaia2+24
13WA Mostaganem304
14Mostaganem304
15Paradou AC304
16Nrb Beni Oulbene304
17Sidi Benali3−14
18ASM Oran303
19Hussein Dey3−13
20WA Tlemcen2−13
21IRB Nezla2−13
22Koléa2−23
23GC Mascara202
24US Chaouia3−12
25JS Jijel2−11
26Teleghma3−21
27CA Batna3−21
28El Bayadh3−21
29Tiaret3−31
30CR Béni Thour2−30
31Taghit3−60

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.