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Model 1.2

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US Chaouia v Teleghma

US Chaouia
1–0Full time
Teleghma

Ligue 2 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
US Chaouia 1–0 Teleghma US CHAOUIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said US Chaouia win69%
The market said68%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.150
The market’s Brier score0.163

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 7 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said US Chaouia win at 69%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: US Chaouia 69% before kick-off, 68% now. 0–0 · 68–19–13
  3. 1′KICK-OFF US Chaouia v Teleghma
  4. 6′US Chaouia find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–4
  5. 6′We said US Chaouia at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–4
  6. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' US Chaouia 1–0 Teleghma
  7. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' US Chaouia win: 69% at kick-off, 87% now
  8. 10′US Chaouia find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–4
  9. 10′We said US Chaouia at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–4
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 86–11–3
  11. 45′HALF-TIME US Chaouia 1–0 Teleghma
  12. 46′SECOND HALF US Chaouia 1–0 Teleghma
  13. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' US Chaouia win: 69% at kick-off, 89% now
  14. 69′We said US Chaouia at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  15. 82′We said US Chaouia at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  16. FTFULL TIME US Chaouia 1–0 Teleghma
  17. FTUS Chaouia 1–0 Teleghma · US Chaouia win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

US Chaouia are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: US Chaouia 69%, draw 18%, Teleghma 13%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on US Chaouia v TeleghmaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

US Chaouia win69%
Draw18%
Teleghma win13%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

US Chaouia

Teleghma

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

Last match: 13 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27 · East

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Teleghma5−15
12US Chaouia5−35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · us chaouia winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 16 Oct 03:45 · locked at kick-off
69% The market68%
Us69%
Market68%

We make US Chaouia a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · US Chaouia v Teleghma2.18 – 0.76
Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 18 SeptW1 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L2
Table places · points 5 v 512 v 10
The market · US Chaouia win68% · ours 69%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75% 13 OCT 05:3017 OCT 14:02
Our probability · US Chaouia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
US Chaouia win69%68%+1
Draw18%23%−5
Teleghma win13%9%+4
Over 2.5 goals55%42%+13
Both teams to score45%33%+12
Over 1.5 goals77%66%+11
Over 3.5 goals34%23%+11
US Chaouia or draw87%91%−4
US Chaouia clean sheet47%––
Teleghma clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.2%
0123450 5.7 4.9 1 12.2 8.5 3.4 2 12.0 8.8 3.4 3 8.5 6.2 2.4 4 4.8 3.5 5 2.3
under 2% 5% 12%+US Chaouia down, Teleghma across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.54 of 8
Both scored6 of 8
Last meetingsUSC 3–1 TEL · TEL 2–1 USC · TEL 1–1 USC · USC 1–2 TEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 18 Sept

US CHAOUIA

DLDLW1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–0

TELEGHMA

DLLDW1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · East
#TEAMPGDPTS
1MSP Batna5+311
2USM Annaba5+59
3JSM Skikda4+39
4MO Constantine5+29
5Azazga5+18
6MO Bejaia4+37
7Nrb Beni Oulbene507
8NC Magra5−27
9Khroub506
10Teleghma5−15
11CA Batna5−15
12US Chaouia5−35
13Paradou AC4−14
14IRB Nezla4−24
15CR Béni Thour4−33
16JS Jijel4−41

The competition's standings before kick-off.