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Teleghma v USM Annaba

Teleghma

2–1Full time

USM Annaba

Ligue 2 · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:57

Teleghma 2–1 USM Annaba USM ANNABA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said USM Annaba win~~39%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.656

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.664

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said USM Annaba win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: USM Annaba was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
1′KICK-OFF Teleghma v USM Annaba
17′We said USM Annaba at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Teleghma 1–0 USM Annaba
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' USM Annaba win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Teleghma win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was USM Annaba win 14%)
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Teleghma 1–1 USM Annaba
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' USM Annaba win: 39% at kick-off, 37% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' USM Annaba win is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Teleghma win 31%)
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Teleghma 2–1 USM Annaba
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was USM Annaba win 33%)
39′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 68–23–10
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' USM Annaba win: 39% at kick-off, 10% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Teleghma win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
42′We said USM Annaba at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 68–23–9
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' USM Annaba win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
45′SECOND HALF Teleghma 2–1 USM Annaba
63′We said USM Annaba at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
FTFULL TIME Teleghma 2–1 USM Annaba
FTTeleghma 2–1 USM Annaba · USM Annaba win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

Teleghma win34%

Draw26%

USM Annaba win39%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Teleghma

USM Annaba

4Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	USM Annaba	4	+6	9
24	Teleghma	4	−2	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · usm annaba winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

39% The market31%

Us39%

~~Market~~31%

We make USM Annaba a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · usm annaba win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Teleghma win	34%	37%	−3
Draw	26%	31%	−5
USM Annaba win	39%	31%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	42%	37%	+5
Both teams to score	46%	45%	0
Over 1.5 goals	67%	63%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	22%	19%	+3
Teleghma or draw	61%	69%	−8
Teleghma clean sheet	30%	–	–
USM Annaba clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.0%

0123450 9.5 12.0 7.1 3.1 1 11.3 12.0 7.5 3.2 2 6.1 7.0 4.2 3 2.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Teleghma down, USM Annaba across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,457 Ligue 2 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Teleghma at home: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). USM Annaba away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Teleghma, 1.25 for USM Annaba. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~USM 4–0 TEL · TEL 0–0 USM · TEL 1–1 USM · USM 1–1 TEL

Form · last six in Ligue 2

TELEGHMA

LLDLLD2–4 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

USM ANNABA

LLWLWW0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RC Kouba	4	+10	12
2	Blida	4	+4	10
3	USM Annaba	4	+6	9
4	Azazga	4	+2	8
5	MSP Batna	4	+2	8
6	MC Saida	3	+2	7
7	Nrb Beni Oulbene	4	+2	7
8	Usm El Harrach	4	+1	7
9	Sidi Benali	4	0	7
10	NC Magra	4	−1	7
11	JSM Skikda	3	+2	6
12	ASM Oran	4	+1	6
13	MO Constantine	4	+1	6
14	Khroub	4	+1	6
15	GC Mascara	3	+1	5
16	WA Mostaganem	4	0	5
17	MO Bejaia	3	+1	4
18	Paradou AC	3	0	4
19	Mostaganem	4	−1	4
20	IRB Nezla	3	−1	4
21	WA Tlemcen	3	−1	4
22	Hussein Dey	4	−2	3
23	Koléa	3	−3	3
24	Teleghma	4	−2	2
25	CA Batna	4	−2	2
26	El Bayadh	4	−2	2
27	US Chaouia	4	−4	2
28	JS Jijel	3	−3	1
29	Tiaret	4	−4	1
30	Taghit	4	−6	1
31	CR Béni Thour	3	−4	0