RC Kouba v ASM Oran prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

RC Kouba 0–0 ASM Oran RC KOUBA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said RC Kouba win~~55%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.847

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.894

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said RC Kouba win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: RC Kouba was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–28–17
1′KICK-OFF RC Kouba v ASM Oran
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' RC Kouba win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
36′We said RC Kouba at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–41–15
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was RC Kouba win 40%)
45′We said RC Kouba at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–47–14
45′HALF-TIME RC Kouba 0–0 ASM Oran
46′SECOND HALF RC Kouba 0–0 ASM Oran
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' RC Kouba win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
54′We said RC Kouba at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–53–13
59′RC Kouba find the net on 59′. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
59′We published RC Kouba at 55%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–11–1
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' RC Kouba 1–0 ASM Oran
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' RC Kouba win: 55% at kick-off, 88% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' RC Kouba win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
60′GOAL DISALLOWED · 60' RC Kouba
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' RC Kouba win: 55% at kick-off, 30% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was RC Kouba win 30%)
62′We said RC Kouba at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–60–11
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' RC Kouba win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
68′We said RC Kouba at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–66–10
74′We said RC Kouba at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–73–8
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' RC Kouba win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
79′We said RC Kouba at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–80–6
83′We said RC Kouba at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–87–4
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' RC Kouba win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
90′We said RC Kouba at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
FTFULL TIME RC Kouba 0–0 ASM Oran
FTRC Kouba 0–0 ASM Oran · RC Kouba win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

RC Kouba are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: RC Kouba 55%, draw 28%, ASM Oran 17%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on RC Kouba v ASM OranBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

RC Kouba win55%

Draw28%

ASM Oran win17%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

RC Kouba

ASM Oran

4Days since last match5

Last match: 14 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

Last match: 13 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	RC Kouba	5	+10	13
8	ASM Oran	5	+6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rc kouba winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 15 Oct 04:38 · locked at kick-off

55% The market58%

Us55%

~~Market~~58%

We make RC Kouba a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · RC Kouba v ASM Oran~~1.32 – 0.57

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 19 Sept~~W4 D1 L0 · W3 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 9~~2 v 8

~~The market · RC Kouba win~~58% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · RC Kouba win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RC Kouba win	55%	58%	−3
Draw	28%	27%	+1
ASM Oran win	17%	15%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	29%	38%	−9
Both teams to score	31%	39%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	55%	63%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	13%	20%	−7
RC Kouba or draw	83%	85%	−2
RC Kouba clean sheet	57%	–	–
ASM Oran clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 20.1%

0123450 15.4 9.3 2.6 1 20.1 10.5 3.2 2 12.7 7.1 2.1 3 5.8 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+RC Kouba down, ASM Oran across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,482 Ligue 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.30 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

RC Kouba at home: 2.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). ASM Oran away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for RC Kouba, 0.57 for ASM Oran. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.30

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~1 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ASM 0–1 RCK · RCK 0–0 ASM · ASM 1–0 RCK · RCK 0–0 ASM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 19 Sept

RC KOUBA

WWWWD3–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 0–0

ASM ORAN

LWLWW0–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 6–1

The table

2026/27 · West

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Blida	6	+9	16
2	RC Kouba	5	+10	13
3	MC Saida	5	+4	13
4	GC Mascara	5	+6	11
5	Usm El Harrach	5	+3	10
6	Mostaganem	6	+2	10
7	Sidi Benali	6	0	10
8	ASM Oran	5	+6	9
9	WA Mostaganem	5	0	6
10	Hussein Dey	6	−2	6
11	Tiaret	6	+1	4
12	WA Tlemcen	5	−5	4
13	Koléa	5	−6	3
14	El Bayadh	6	−6	2
15	Taghit	6	−17	1
16	RC Arba	2	−5	0