RC Arba v WA Mostaganem

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said RC Arba win at 47%.
2. 2′KICK-OFF RC Arba v WA Mostaganem
3. 3′Little has changed for our model: RC Arba 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
4. 39′We said RC Arba at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
5. 39′A goal for WA Mostaganem on 38′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–25–61
6. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' RC Arba 0–1 WA Mostaganem
7. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' RC Arba win: 47% at kick-off, 14% now
8. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' WA Mostaganem win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was RC Arba win 39%)
9. 41′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–62
10. 45′HALF-TIME RC Arba 0–1 WA Mostaganem
11. 46′SECOND HALF RC Arba 0–1 WA Mostaganem
12. 51′We said RC Arba at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–43–23
13. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' RC Arba 1–1 WA Mostaganem
14. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' RC Arba win: 47% at kick-off, 34% now
15. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was WA Mostaganem win 66%)
16. 52′RC Arba score on 51′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 34–44–22
17. 61′We said RC Arba at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
18. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' RC Arba win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
19. 69′We said RC Arba at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–60–16
20. 71′RC Arba have ten men and WA Mostaganem ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 22–62–15
21. 71′🟥 RED CARD · 71' WA Mostaganem
22. 71′🟥 RED CARD · 71' RC Arba
23. 75′We said RC Arba at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
24. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' RC Arba win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
25. 84′We said RC Arba at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
26. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' RC Arba win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
27. 90′2–1 at the end. Our 47% on RC Arba comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
28. 91′We said RC Arba at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
29. 92′RC Arba find the net on 90′. 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
30. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' RC Arba 2–1 WA Mostaganem
31. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' RC Arba win: 47% at kick-off, 98% now
32. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' RC Arba win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 93%)
33. 93′We said RC Arba at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–1 · 98–2–0
34. 93′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 98–2–0
35. FTFULL TIME RC Arba 2–1 WA Mostaganem
36. FTRC Arba 2–1 WA Mostaganem · RC Arba win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.