NC Magra v IRB Nezla prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

NC Magra 1–0 IRB Nezla NC MAGRA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said NC Magra win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.350

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NC Magra win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: NC Magra was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–26–22
1′KICK-OFF NC Magra v IRB Nezla
7′Much as we predicted: NC Magra was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–22
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' NC Magra win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
41′We said NC Magra at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–40–20
43′We said NC Magra at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–41–19
45′HALF-TIME NC Magra 0–0 IRB Nezla
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was NC Magra win 38%)
46′SECOND HALF NC Magra 0–0 IRB Nezla
54′We said NC Magra at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–17
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' NC Magra win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
62′We said NC Magra at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–15
69′We said NC Magra at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–13
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' NC Magra win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
75′We said NC Magra at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–71–10
80′We said NC Magra at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–7
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' NC Magra win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
82′A goal for NC Magra on 82′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 94–6–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' NC Magra 1–0 IRB Nezla
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' NC Magra win: 52% at kick-off, 94% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' NC Magra win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
83′We published NC Magra at 52%. Our model now makes it 94%. 1–0 · 94–5–0
84′We published NC Magra at 52%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME NC Magra 1–0 IRB Nezla
FTNC Magra 1–0 IRB Nezla · NC Magra win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NC Magra are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NC Magra 52%, draw 26%, IRB Nezla 22%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on NC Magra v IRB NezlaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

NC Magra win52%

Draw26%

IRB Nezla win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NC Magra

IRB Nezla

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	NC Magra	5	−2	7
14	IRB Nezla	4	−2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nc magra winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 14 Oct 04:32 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make NC Magra a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NC Magra v IRB Nezla~~1.45 – 0.82

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~8 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NC Magra win

Published at 51%, 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NC Magra win	52%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
IRB Nezla win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
NC Magra or draw	78%	–	–
NC Magra clean sheet	45%	–	–
IRB Nezla clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.4%

0123450 10.6 9.2 3.6 1 15.4 11.3 4.9 2 10.5 8.3 3.4 3 5.2 4.1 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NC Magra down, IRB Nezla across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,473 Ligue 2 matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

NC Magra at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). IRB Nezla away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for NC Magra, 0.82 for IRB Nezla. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 18 Sept

NC MAGRA

LWWDL0–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

IRB NEZLA

LWDL0–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · East

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSP Batna	5	+3	11
2	USM Annaba	5	+5	9
3	JSM Skikda	4	+3	9
4	MO Constantine	5	+2	9
5	Azazga	5	+1	8
6	MO Bejaia	4	+3	7
7	Nrb Beni Oulbene	5	0	7
8	NC Magra	5	−2	7
9	Khroub	5	0	6
10	Teleghma	5	−1	5
11	CA Batna	5	−1	5
12	US Chaouia	5	−3	5
13	Paradou AC	4	−1	4
14	IRB Nezla	4	−2	4
15	CR Béni Thour	4	−3	3
16	JS Jijel	4	−4	1