MSP Batna v MO Bejaia prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 17:31

MSP Batna 1–0 MO Bejaia MSP BATNA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said MSP Batna win~~36%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.614

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.473

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said MSP Batna win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: MSP Batna 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–30–34
1′KICK-OFF MSP Batna v MO Bejaia
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was MSP Batna win 34%)
45′SECOND HALF MSP Batna 0–0 MO Bejaia
48′HALF-TIME MSP Batna 0–0 MO Bejaia
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' MSP Batna win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
54′We said MSP Batna at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–52–23
64′We said MSP Batna at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–17–3
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' MSP Batna 1–0 MO Bejaia
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' MSP Batna win: 36% at kick-off, 81% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' MSP Batna win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 61%)
65′MSP Batna score on 65′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
72′We said MSP Batna at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' MSP Batna win: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
79′We said MSP Batna at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
86′We said MSP Batna at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' MSP Batna win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME MSP Batna 1–0 MO Bejaia
FTMSP Batna 1–0 MO Bejaia · MSP Batna win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with MSP Batna just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: MSP Batna 36%, draw 29%, MO Bejaia 34%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on MSP Batna v MO BejaiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

MSP Batna win36%

Draw29%

MO Bejaia win34%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MSP Batna

MO Bejaia

6Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

Last match: 15 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · msp batna winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 16 Oct 00:06 · locked at kick-off

36% The market44%

Us36%

~~Market~~44%

We make MSP Batna a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · MSP Batna v MO Bejaia~~1.02 – 0.99

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 18 Sept~~W3 D2 L0 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 7~~1 v 9

~~The market · MSP Batna win~~44% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · MSP Batna win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MSP Batna win	36%	44%	−8
Draw	29%	32%	−3
MO Bejaia win	34%	24%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	33%	36%	−3
Both teams to score	39%	42%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	59%	61%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	15%	18%	−3
MSP Batna or draw	66%	76%	−10
MSP Batna clean sheet	38%	–	–
MO Bejaia clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 13.5 13.8 6.6 2.3 1 14.1 12.4 6.3 2.2 2 7.0 6.6 3.2 3 2.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MSP Batna down, MO Bejaia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,484 Ligue 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.0% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

MSP Batna at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). MO Bejaia away: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for MSP Batna, 0.99 for MO Bejaia. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MSP 2–1 MOB · MOB 2–0 MSP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 18 Sept

MSP BATNA

DDWWW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

MO BEJAIA

DWLW0–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27 · East

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSP Batna	5	+3	11
2	USM Annaba	6	+5	10
3	NC Magra	6	−1	10
4	JSM Skikda	5	+2	9
5	MO Constantine	5	+2	9
6	Khroub	6	+1	9
7	Azazga	5	+1	8
8	US Chaouia	6	−2	8
9	MO Bejaia	4	+3	7
10	Paradou AC	5	+1	7
11	Nrb Beni Oulbene	5	0	7
12	CA Batna	6	−1	6
13	Teleghma	6	−2	5
14	IRB Nezla	5	−3	4
15	CR Béni Thour	4	−3	3
16	JS Jijel	5	−6	1