MO Bejaia v Paradou AC prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

MO Bejaia 2–1 Paradou AC MO BEJAIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said MO Bejaia win~~61%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.232

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.377

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said MO Bejaia win at 61%.
1′Much as we predicted: MO Bejaia was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–24–15
1′KICK-OFF MO Bejaia v Paradou AC
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' MO Bejaia win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
36′We said MO Bejaia at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–37–14
44′MO Bejaia score on 44′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–11–2
44′We published MO Bejaia at 61%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–11–2
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' MO Bejaia 1–0 Paradou AC
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' MO Bejaia win: 61% at kick-off, 87% now
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 87–11–2
45′HALF-TIME MO Bejaia 1–0 Paradou AC
46′SECOND HALF MO Bejaia 1–0 Paradou AC
53′Paradou AC find the net on 52′. 1–1. 1–1 · 40–48–12
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' MO Bejaia 1–1 Paradou AC
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' MO Bejaia win: 61% at kick-off, 40% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was MO Bejaia win 87%)
54′We said MO Bejaia at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–48–12
61′We said MO Bejaia at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–55–11
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' MO Bejaia win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
67′We said MO Bejaia at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–61–10
72′We said MO Bejaia at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–67–8
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' MO Bejaia win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
77′We said MO Bejaia at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–74–7
81′We said MO Bejaia at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–81–5
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' MO Bejaia win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
85′A goal for MO Bejaia on 84′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
85′We published MO Bejaia at 61%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–1 · 97–3–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' MO Bejaia 2–1 Paradou AC
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' MO Bejaia win: 61% at kick-off, 97% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' MO Bejaia win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 87%)
86′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 97–3–0
FTFULL TIME MO Bejaia 2–1 Paradou AC
FTMO Bejaia 2–1 Paradou AC · MO Bejaia win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

MO Bejaia are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: MO Bejaia 61%, draw 24%, Paradou AC 15%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on MO Bejaia v Paradou ACBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

MO Bejaia win61%

Draw24%

Paradou AC win15%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MO Bejaia

Paradou AC

5Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	MO Bejaia	5	+2	7
11	Paradou AC	5	+1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mo bejaia winFirst published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

61% The market50%

Us61%

~~Market~~50%

We make MO Bejaia a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · MO Bejaia v Paradou AC~~1.59 – 0.60

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~10 v 11

~~The market · MO Bejaia win~~50% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · MO Bejaia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MO Bejaia win	61%	50%	+11
Draw	24%	30%	−6
Paradou AC win	15%	20%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	37%	36%	+1
Both teams to score	34%	40%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	63%	61%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	18%	18%	0
MO Bejaia or draw	85%	80%	+5
MO Bejaia clean sheet	56%	–	–
Paradou AC clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.2%

0123450 11.6 7.4 2.1 1 18.2 9.9 3.2 2 13.7 7.9 2.4 3 7.4 4.2 4 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MO Bejaia down, Paradou AC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,491 Ligue 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

MO Bejaia at home: 0.67 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 6). Paradou AC away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for MO Bejaia, 0.60 for Paradou AC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 18 Sept

MO BEJAIA

DWLWL0–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–1

PARADOU AC

DWLLW0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27 · East

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSP Batna	6	+4	14
2	Azazga	6	+4	11
3	USM Annaba	6	+5	10
4	MO Constantine	6	+2	10
5	NC Magra	6	−1	10
6	JSM Skikda	5	+2	9
7	Khroub	6	+1	9
8	Nrb Beni Oulbene	6	0	8
9	US Chaouia	6	−2	8
10	MO Bejaia	5	+2	7
11	Paradou AC	5	+1	7
12	CA Batna	6	−1	6
13	Teleghma	6	−2	5
14	IRB Nezla	5	−3	4
15	CR Béni Thour	5	−6	3
16	JS Jijel	5	−6	1