MO Bejaia v Nrb Beni Oulbene prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 18:01

MO Bejaia 2–0 Nrb Beni Oulbene MO BEJAIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said MO Bejaia win~~61%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.229

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.231

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

MO Bejaia are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: MO Bejaia 61%, draw 24%, Nrb Beni Oulbene 14%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on MO Bejaia v Nrb Beni OulbeneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

MO Bejaia win61%

Draw24%

Nrb Beni Oulbene win14%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MO Bejaia

Nrb Beni Oulbene

5Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Nrb Beni Oulbene	4	+2	7
12	MO Bejaia	3	+1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mo bejaia winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 11 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

61% The market61%

Us61%

~~Market~~61%

We make MO Bejaia a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · MO Bejaia v Nrb Beni Oulbene~~1.57 – 0.57

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~12 v 6

~~The market · MO Bejaia win~~61% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · MO Bejaia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 63%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MO Bejaia win	61%	61%	0
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Nrb Beni Oulbene win	14%	13%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	36%	41%	−5
Both teams to score	33%	40%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	62%	65%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	18%	22%	−4
MO Bejaia or draw	86%	87%	−1
MO Bejaia clean sheet	57%	–	–
Nrb Beni Oulbene clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.7%

0123450 12.1 7.3 2.0 1 18.7 9.8 3.0 2 14.0 7.8 2.3 3 7.4 4.1 4 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MO Bejaia down, Nrb Beni Oulbene across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,471 Ligue 2 matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.7% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

MO Bejaia at home: 0.67 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nrb Beni Oulbene away: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for MO Bejaia, 0.57 for Nrb Beni Oulbene. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MOB 0–0 NRB · NRB 1–1 MOB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 18 Sept

MO BEJAIA

DWL0–0 · 3–1 · 1–2

NRB BENI OULBENE

DWLW1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSP Batna	5	+3	11
2	USM Annaba	5	+5	9
3	JSM Skikda	4	+3	9
4	MO Constantine	5	+2	9
5	Azazga	5	+1	8
6	Nrb Beni Oulbene	4	+2	7
7	NC Magra	5	−2	7
8	Khroub	5	0	6
9	Teleghma	5	−1	5
10	CA Batna	5	−1	5
11	US Chaouia	5	−3	5
12	MO Bejaia	3	+1	4
13	Paradou AC	4	−1	4
14	IRB Nezla	4	−2	4
15	CR Béni Thour	4	−3	3
16	JS Jijel	4	−4	1