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MC Saida v Tiaret

MC Saida

1–0Full time

Tiaret

Ligue 2 · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:57

MC Saida 1–0 Tiaret MC SAIDA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said MC Saida win~~49%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.387

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.296

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said MC Saida win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: MC Saida was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–29–22
1′KICK-OFF MC Saida v Tiaret
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' MC Saida 1–0 Tiaret
13′We published MC Saida at 49%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–6
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' MC Saida win: 49% at kick-off, 78% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' MC Saida win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
32′We published MC Saida at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
45′HALF-TIME MC Saida 1–0 Tiaret
46′SECOND HALF MC Saida 1–0 Tiaret
61′We said MC Saida at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–56–15
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' MC Saida 1–1 Tiaret
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' MC Saida win: 49% at kick-off, 28% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was MC Saida win 28%)
63′We published MC Saida at 49%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' MC Saida win: 49% at kick-off, 85% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' MC Saida win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
68′We said MC Saida at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–64–13
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' MC Saida 1–1 Tiaret
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' MC Saida win: 49% at kick-off, 23% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was MC Saida win 23%)
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' MC Saida win: 49% at kick-off, 88% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' MC Saida win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' MC Saida win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
74′We published MC Saida at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
84′We published MC Saida at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME MC Saida 1–0 Tiaret
FTMC Saida 1–0 Tiaret · MC Saida win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

MC Saida win49%

Draw28%

Tiaret win23%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

MC Saida

Tiaret

10Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	MC Saida	3	+2	7
29	Tiaret	4	−4	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mc saida winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

49% The market56%

Us49%

~~Market~~56%

We make MC Saida a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mc saida win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MC Saida win	49%	56%	−7
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Tiaret win	23%	17%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	35%	40%	−5
Both teams to score	38%	41%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	61%	65%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	17%	21%	−4
MC Saida or draw	77%	83%	−6
MC Saida clean sheet	46%	–	–
Tiaret clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.5%

0123450 12.5 10.2 3.9 1 16.5 11.7 4.8 2 10.4 7.8 3.1 3 4.7 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MC Saida down, Tiaret across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,457 Ligue 2 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

MC Saida at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Tiaret away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for MC Saida, 0.78 for Tiaret. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~TIA 0–0 MCS · MCS 2–1 TIA · TIA 1–0 MCS · MCS 1–1 TIA

Form · last six in Ligue 2

MC SAIDA

DWLDWW1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

TIARET

LLLDLL0–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RC Kouba	4	+10	12
2	Blida	4	+4	10
3	USM Annaba	4	+6	9
4	Azazga	4	+2	8
5	MSP Batna	4	+2	8
6	MC Saida	3	+2	7
7	Nrb Beni Oulbene	4	+2	7
8	Usm El Harrach	4	+1	7
9	Sidi Benali	4	0	7
10	NC Magra	4	−1	7
11	JSM Skikda	3	+2	6
12	ASM Oran	4	+1	6
13	MO Constantine	4	+1	6
14	Khroub	4	+1	6
15	GC Mascara	3	+1	5
16	WA Mostaganem	4	0	5
17	MO Bejaia	3	+1	4
18	Paradou AC	3	0	4
19	Mostaganem	4	−1	4
20	IRB Nezla	3	−1	4
21	WA Tlemcen	3	−1	4
22	Hussein Dey	4	−2	3
23	Koléa	3	−3	3
24	Teleghma	4	−2	2
25	CA Batna	4	−2	2
26	El Bayadh	4	−2	2
27	US Chaouia	4	−4	2
28	JS Jijel	3	−3	1
29	Tiaret	4	−4	1
30	Taghit	4	−6	1
31	CR Béni Thour	3	−4	0