Home › Football › Ligue 2 › Koléa v Mostaganem

Koléa v Mostaganem

Koléa

2–3Full time

Mostaganem

Ligue 2 · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:57

Koléa 2–3 Mostaganem MOSTAGANEM WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mostaganem win~~40%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.537

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.732

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mostaganem win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mostaganem 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 30–30–40
1′KICK-OFF Koléa v Mostaganem
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Koléa 0–1 Mostaganem
9′We said Mostaganem at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Mostaganem win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Koléa 1–1 Mostaganem
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Mostaganem win: 40% at kick-off, 37% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Mostaganem win 34%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Mostaganem win: 40% at kick-off, 31% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Mostaganem win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
47′SECOND HALF Koléa 1–1 Mostaganem
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Mostaganem win: 40% at kick-off, 29% now
50′We said Mostaganem at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–2 · 4–19–77
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Koléa 1–2 Mostaganem
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Mostaganem win: 40% at kick-off, 77% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Mostaganem win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
52′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 4–18–78
59′We said Mostaganem at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Mostaganem win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Koléa 2–2 Mostaganem
63′We said Mostaganem at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 2–2 · 19–59–23
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Mostaganem win: 40% at kick-off, 23% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Mostaganem win 23%)
65′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 18–61–22
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Mostaganem win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
70′We said Mostaganem at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 15–66–19
76′We said Mostaganem at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 12–74–14
82′We said Mostaganem at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 7–84–9
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Mostaganem win: 40% at kick-off, 9% now
90′We said Mostaganem at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 3–93–4
FTFULL TIME Koléa 2–2 Mostaganem
FTKoléa 2–3 Mostaganem · Mostaganem win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

Koléa win31%

Draw28%

Mostaganem win40%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Koléa

Mostaganem

4Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	Mostaganem	4	−1	4
23	Koléa	3	−3	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mostaganem winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

40% The market30%

Us40%

~~Market~~30%

We make Mostaganem a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mostaganem win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Koléa win	31%	38%	−7
Draw	28%	32%	−3
Mostaganem win	40%	30%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	35%	36%	−1
Both teams to score	39%	44%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	61%	61%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	17%	18%	−2
Koléa or draw	60%	70%	−10
Koléa clean sheet	33%	–	–
Mostaganem clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.5%

0123450 12.7 14.5 7.9 3.2 1 12.3 11.9 6.9 2.7 2 5.8 6.0 3.3 3 2.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Koléa down, Mostaganem across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,457 Ligue 2 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Koléa at home: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mostaganem away: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Koléa, 1.15 for Mostaganem. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MOS 2–0 KOL · KOL 0–0 MOS

Form · last six in Ligue 2

KOLÉA

LLLLWL1–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1

MOSTAGANEM

WWLWDL4–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RC Kouba	4	+10	12
2	Blida	4	+4	10
3	USM Annaba	4	+6	9
4	Azazga	4	+2	8
5	MSP Batna	4	+2	8
6	MC Saida	3	+2	7
7	Nrb Beni Oulbene	4	+2	7
8	Usm El Harrach	4	+1	7
9	Sidi Benali	4	0	7
10	NC Magra	4	−1	7
11	JSM Skikda	3	+2	6
12	ASM Oran	4	+1	6
13	MO Constantine	4	+1	6
14	Khroub	4	+1	6
15	GC Mascara	3	+1	5
16	WA Mostaganem	4	0	5
17	MO Bejaia	3	+1	4
18	Paradou AC	3	0	4
19	Mostaganem	4	−1	4
20	IRB Nezla	3	−1	4
21	WA Tlemcen	3	−1	4
22	Hussein Dey	4	−2	3
23	Koléa	3	−3	3
24	Teleghma	4	−2	2
25	CA Batna	4	−2	2
26	El Bayadh	4	−2	2
27	US Chaouia	4	−4	2
28	JS Jijel	3	−3	1
29	Tiaret	4	−4	1
30	Taghit	4	−6	1
31	CR Béni Thour	3	−4	0