Koléa v GC Mascara prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Koléa 2–4 GC Mascara KOLÉA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Koléa win~~39%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.694

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.633

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Koléa win at 39%.
1′A goal for GC Mascara on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–23–61
1′We said Koléa at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–23–61
1′KICK-OFF Koléa v GC Mascara
9′GC Mascara score on 9′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 5–10–85
9′We said Koléa at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–10–85
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Koléa 0–2 GC Mascara
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Koléa win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
10′We said Koléa at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–85
27′Koléa find the net on 27′. 1–2. 1–2 · 11–23–65
27′We said Koléa at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–2 · 11–23–65
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Koléa 1–2 GC Mascara
30′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 11–23–66
45′HALF-TIME Koléa 1–2 GC Mascara
46′SECOND HALF Koléa 1–2 GC Mascara
47′A goal for Koléa on 47′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 29–46–25
47′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 29–46–25
47′Little has changed for our model: Koléa 39% before kick-off, 29% now. 2–2 · 29–46–25
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Koléa 2–2 GC Mascara
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Koléa win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was GC Mascara win 71%)
52′We said Koléa at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 2–2 · 27–49–23
59′We said Koléa at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–55–21
66′GC Mascara score on 65′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 3–18–79
66′5 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 3–18–79
66′Koléa are down to ten from 66′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–3 · 3–18–79
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Koléa 2–3 GC Mascara
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Koléa win: 39% at kick-off, 3% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' GC Mascara win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 61%)
66′🟥 RED CARD · 66' Koléa
73′GC Mascara find the net on 73′. 2–4. 2–4 · 0–2–98
73′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–2–98
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Koléa 2–4 GC Mascara
FTFULL TIME Koléa 2–4 GC Mascara
FTKoléa 2–4 GC Mascara · Koléa win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Koléa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Koléa 39%, draw 28%, GC Mascara 32%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Koléa v GC MascaraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Koléa win39%

Draw28%

GC Mascara win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Koléa

GC Mascara

7Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

Last match: 19 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	GC Mascara	6	+7	14
14	Koléa	5	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · koléa winFirst published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

39% The market35%

Us39%

~~Market~~35%

We make Koléa a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Koléa v GC Mascara~~1.12 – 0.99

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D0 L4 · W3 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 14~~14 v 3

~~The market · Koléa win~~35% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Koléa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Koléa win	39%	35%	+4
Draw	28%	30%	−2
GC Mascara win	32%	35%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	35%	40%	−5
Both teams to score	40%	48%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	61%	66%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	17%	21%	−4
Koléa or draw	68%	65%	+3
Koléa clean sheet	39%	–	–
GC Mascara clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 12.3 12.5 5.9 2.1 1 14.3 12.2 6.2 2.1 2 7.7 7.1 3.4 3 3.0 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Koléa down, GC Mascara across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,491 Ligue 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Koléa at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). GC Mascara away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Koléa, 0.99 for GC Mascara. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GCM 1–1 KOL · KOL 1–0 GCM · GCM 1–0 KOL · KOL 1–0 GCM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 19 Sept

KOLÉA

LWLLL0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–3

GC MASCARA

DDWWW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · West

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Blida	7	+9	17
2	RC Kouba	6	+10	14
3	GC Mascara	6	+7	14
4	MC Saida	6	+4	14
5	ASM Oran	6	+6	10
6	Usm El Harrach	6	+2	10
7	Mostaganem	6	+2	10
8	Sidi Benali	6	0	10
9	WA Tlemcen	6	−3	7
10	WA Mostaganem	6	−1	6
11	Hussein Dey	6	−2	6
12	Tiaret	6	+1	4
13	RC Arba	3	−4	3
14	Koléa	5	−6	3
15	El Bayadh	6	−6	2
16	Taghit	7	−19	1