Hussein Dey v RC Arba prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Hussein Dey 1–0 RC Arba HUSSEIN DEY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Hussein Dey win~~59%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.256

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.128

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hussein Dey win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hussein Dey 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
1′KICK-OFF Hussein Dey v RC Arba
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Hussein Dey win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
38′We said Hussein Dey at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 47–36–17
45′We said Hussein Dey at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–40–16
45′HALF-TIME Hussein Dey 0–0 RC Arba
46′SECOND HALF Hussein Dey 0–0 RC Arba
65′We said Hussein Dey at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–56–13
65′Goalless on 65′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 31–56–13
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Hussein Dey win: 59% at kick-off, 31% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Hussein Dey win 44%)
68′We said Hussein Dey at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–59–12
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Hussein Dey win: 59% at kick-off, 29% now
74′We said Hussein Dey at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–67–10
78′We said Hussein Dey at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–74–8
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Hussein Dey win: 59% at kick-off, 18% now
81′We said Hussein Dey at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–6
82′Hussein Dey are down to ten from 81′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 13–81–6
82′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Hussein Dey
85′We said Hussein Dey at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–4
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Hussein Dey win: 59% at kick-off, 9% now
91′We said Hussein Dey at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–2
92′Hussein Dey score on 90′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Hussein Dey 1–0 RC Arba
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Hussein Dey win: 59% at kick-off, 98% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Hussein Dey win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 95%)
93′We said Hussein Dey at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 1–0 · 99–1–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Hussein Dey win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Hussein Dey 1–0 RC Arba
FTHussein Dey 1–0 RC Arba · Hussein Dey win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hussein Dey are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hussein Dey 59%, draw 23%, RC Arba 18%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Hussein Dey v RC ArbaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Hussein Dey win59%

Draw23%

RC Arba win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hussein Dey

RC Arba

7Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

Last match: 19 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Hussein Dey	6	−2	6
13	RC Arba	3	−4	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hussein dey winFirst published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

59% The market71%

Us59%

~~Market~~71%

We make Hussein Dey a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hussein Dey v RC Arba~~1.69 – 0.77

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~11 v 13

~~The market · Hussein Dey win~~71% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hussein Dey win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hussein Dey win	59%	71%	−12
Draw	23%	20%	+3
RC Arba win	18%	9%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	44%	47%	−3
Both teams to score	42%	36%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	27%	−3
Hussein Dey or draw	82%	91%	−9
Hussein Dey clean sheet	47%	–	–
RC Arba clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 8.9 7.4 2.7 1 14.9 10.4 4.2 2 11.7 8.7 3.4 3 6.6 4.9 4 3.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hussein Dey down, RC Arba across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,491 Ligue 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.14 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hussein Dey at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). RC Arba away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Hussein Dey, 0.77 for RC Arba. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~HUS 3–0 RCA · HUS 1–0 RCA · RCA 1–1 HUS · HUS 1–0 RCA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 19 Sept

HUSSEIN DEY

WLLLWL1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 0–3

RC ARBA

LW1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · West

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Blida	7	+9	17
2	RC Kouba	6	+10	14
3	GC Mascara	6	+7	14
4	MC Saida	6	+4	14
5	ASM Oran	6	+6	10
6	Usm El Harrach	6	+2	10
7	Mostaganem	6	+2	10
8	Sidi Benali	6	0	10
9	WA Tlemcen	6	−3	7
10	WA Mostaganem	6	−1	6
11	Hussein Dey	6	−2	6
12	Tiaret	6	+1	4
13	RC Arba	3	−4	3
14	Koléa	5	−6	3
15	El Bayadh	6	−6	2
16	Taghit	7	−19	1