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Hussein Dey v El Bayadh

Hussein Dey

3–0Full time

El Bayadh

Ligue 2 · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:57

Hussein Dey 3–0 El Bayadh HUSSEIN DEY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hussein Dey win~~48%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.411

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.320

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hussein Dey win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hussein Dey was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–33–18
1′KICK-OFF Hussein Dey v El Bayadh
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Hussein Dey win 39%)
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Hussein Dey win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
42′We said Hussein Dey at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–49–15
45′HALF-TIME Hussein Dey 0–0 El Bayadh
46′SECOND HALF Hussein Dey 0–0 El Bayadh
47′We said Hussein Dey at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–52–15
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Hussein Dey 1–0 El Bayadh
50′We published Hussein Dey at 48%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–13–2
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Hussein Dey win: 48% at kick-off, 86% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Hussein Dey win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 13%)
52′Goals are coming at about the 1.7 we expected. 1–0 · 86–12–2
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Hussein Dey 1–0 El Bayadh
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Hussein Dey win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
67′We published Hussein Dey at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
77′We published Hussein Dey at 48%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Hussein Dey 2–0 El Bayadh
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Hussein Dey win: 48% at kick-off, 100% now
90′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Hussein Dey 3–0 El Bayadh
FTFULL TIME Hussein Dey 3–0 El Bayadh
FTHussein Dey 3–0 El Bayadh · Hussein Dey win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

Hussein Dey win48%

Draw33%

El Bayadh win19%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hussein Dey

El Bayadh

4Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
22	Hussein Dey	4	−2	3
26	El Bayadh	4	−2	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hussein dey winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

48% The market54%

Us48%

~~Market~~54%

We make Hussein Dey a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hussein dey win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hussein Dey win	48%	54%	−6
Draw	33%	27%	+5
El Bayadh win	19%	19%	0
Over 2.5 goals	24%	40%	−16
Both teams to score	27%	42%	−15
Over 1.5 goals	48%	65%	−16
Over 3.5 goals	10%	21%	−11
Hussein Dey or draw	81%	81%	0
Hussein Dey clean sheet	58%	–	–
El Bayadh clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 20.5%

0123450 20.4 10.9 3.0 1 20.5 10.2 3.1 2 11.0 6.0 3 4.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hussein Dey down, El Bayadh across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,457 Ligue 2 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Hussein Dey at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). El Bayadh away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Hussein Dey, 0.56 for El Bayadh. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Ligue 2 since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Ligue 2

HUSSEIN DEY

LWWLLL2–3 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–3

EL BAYADH

WWLDLD1–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RC Kouba	4	+10	12
2	Blida	4	+4	10
3	USM Annaba	4	+6	9
4	Azazga	4	+2	8
5	MSP Batna	4	+2	8
6	MC Saida	3	+2	7
7	Nrb Beni Oulbene	4	+2	7
8	Usm El Harrach	4	+1	7
9	Sidi Benali	4	0	7
10	NC Magra	4	−1	7
11	JSM Skikda	3	+2	6
12	ASM Oran	4	+1	6
13	MO Constantine	4	+1	6
14	Khroub	4	+1	6
15	GC Mascara	3	+1	5
16	WA Mostaganem	4	0	5
17	MO Bejaia	3	+1	4
18	Paradou AC	3	0	4
19	Mostaganem	4	−1	4
20	IRB Nezla	3	−1	4
21	WA Tlemcen	3	−1	4
22	Hussein Dey	4	−2	3
23	Koléa	3	−3	3
24	Teleghma	4	−2	2
25	CA Batna	4	−2	2
26	El Bayadh	4	−2	2
27	US Chaouia	4	−4	2
28	JS Jijel	3	−3	1
29	Tiaret	4	−4	1
30	Taghit	4	−6	1
31	CR Béni Thour	3	−4	0