GC Mascara v Usm El Harrach prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 17:31

GC Mascara 1–0 Usm El Harrach USM EL HARRACH WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Usm El Harrach win~~37%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.649

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.651

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Usm El Harrach win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Usm El Harrach was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 34–28–37
1′KICK-OFF GC Mascara v Usm El Harrach
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Usm El Harrach win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME GC Mascara 0–0 Usm El Harrach
45′SECOND HALF GC Mascara 0–0 Usm El Harrach
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Usm El Harrach win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
53′We said Usm El Harrach at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–0 · 74–21–6
53′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 74–21–6
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' GC Mascara 1–0 Usm El Harrach
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Usm El Harrach win: 37% at kick-off, 6% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' GC Mascara win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 49%)
54′A goal for GC Mascara on 54′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–5
59′We said Usm El Harrach at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
FTFULL TIME GC Mascara 1–0 Usm El Harrach
FTGC Mascara 1–0 Usm El Harrach · Usm El Harrach win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Usm El Harrach just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: GC Mascara 34%, draw 28%, Usm El Harrach 37%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on GC Mascara v Usm El HarrachBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

GC Mascara win34%

Draw28%

Usm El Harrach win37%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

GC Mascara

Usm El Harrach

6Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

Last match: 15 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	GC Mascara	5	+6	11
6	Usm El Harrach	5	+3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · usm el harrach winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 14 Oct 04:32 · locked at kick-off

37% The market33%

Us37%

~~Market~~33%

We make Usm El Harrach a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · GC Mascara v Usm El Harrach~~1.06 – 1.12

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D2 L0 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~4 v 6

~~The market · Usm El Harrach win~~33% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Usm El Harrach win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
GC Mascara win	34%	34%	0
Draw	28%	33%	−5
Usm El Harrach win	37%	33%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	37%	36%	+1
Both teams to score	42%	44%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	63%	61%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	18%	18%	0
GC Mascara or draw	63%	67%	−4
GC Mascara clean sheet	34%	–	–
Usm El Harrach clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.5 13.3 7.1 2.7 1 12.6 12.3 7.1 2.7 2 6.4 6.7 3.7 3 2.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+GC Mascara down, Usm El Harrach across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,484 Ligue 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.0% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

GC Mascara at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Usm El Harrach away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for GC Mascara, 1.12 for Usm El Harrach. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GCM 1–1 USM · USM 4–1 GCM · USM 1–0 GCM · GCM 1–0 USM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 19 Sept

GC MASCARA

DDWW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

USM EL HARRACH

WDWLW1–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 0–4 · 3–1

The table

2026/27 · West

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Blida	6	+9	16
2	RC Kouba	6	+10	14
3	MC Saida	5	+4	13
4	GC Mascara	5	+6	11
5	ASM Oran	6	+6	10
6	Usm El Harrach	5	+3	10
7	Mostaganem	6	+2	10
8	Sidi Benali	6	0	10
9	WA Mostaganem	5	0	6
10	Hussein Dey	6	−2	6
11	Tiaret	6	+1	4
12	WA Tlemcen	5	−5	4
13	Koléa	5	−6	3
14	El Bayadh	6	−6	2
15	Taghit	6	−17	1
16	RC Arba	2	−5	0