CR Béni Thour v USM Annaba prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

CR Béni Thour 1–2 USM Annaba USM ANNABA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said USM Annaba win~~41%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.519

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.465

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said USM Annaba win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: USM Annaba was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
1′KICK-OFF CR Béni Thour v USM Annaba
3′USM Annaba score on 3′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–20–69
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' CR Béni Thour 0–1 USM Annaba
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' USM Annaba win: 41% at kick-off, 69% now
4′We published USM Annaba at 41%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 11–20–69
10′We published USM Annaba at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 11–20–70
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' USM Annaba win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 8–20–72
32′CR Béni Thour find the net on 32′. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–37–35
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' CR Béni Thour 1–1 USM Annaba
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' USM Annaba win: 41% at kick-off, 35% now
35′GOAL DISALLOWED · 35' CR Béni Thour
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' USM Annaba win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' CR Béni Thour 0–2 USM Annaba
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' USM Annaba win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME CR Béni Thour 0–2 USM Annaba
46′SECOND HALF CR Béni Thour 0–2 USM Annaba
47′We published USM Annaba at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
59′A goal for CR Béni Thour on 58′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 3–17–79
59′We published USM Annaba at 41%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–2 · 3–17–79
59′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 3–17–79
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' CR Béni Thour 1–2 USM Annaba
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' USM Annaba win: 41% at kick-off, 79% now
60′We published USM Annaba at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
71′We published USM Annaba at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
78′CR Béni Thour score on 78′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 11–76–13
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' CR Béni Thour 2–2 USM Annaba
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' USM Annaba win: 41% at kick-off, 13% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 76% (was USM Annaba win 89%)
79′GOAL DISALLOWED · 79' CR Béni Thour
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' USM Annaba win: 41% at kick-off, 90% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' USM Annaba win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 76%)
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' USM Annaba win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
FTFULL TIME CR Béni Thour 1–2 USM Annaba
FTCR Béni Thour 1–2 USM Annaba · USM Annaba win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

USM Annaba are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CR Béni Thour 31%, draw 27%, USM Annaba 41%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on CR Béni Thour v USM AnnabaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

CR Béni Thour win31%

Draw27%

USM Annaba win41%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CR Béni Thour

USM Annaba

5Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	USM Annaba	6	+5	10
15	CR Béni Thour	5	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · usm annaba winFirst published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

41% The market44%

Us41%

~~Market~~44%

We make USM Annaba a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CR Béni Thour v USM Annaba~~1.01 – 1.22

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 10~~15 v 3

~~The market · USM Annaba win~~44% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · USM Annaba win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CR Béni Thour win	31%	26%	+5
Draw	27%	29%	−2
USM Annaba win	41%	44%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	38%	40%	−2
Both teams to score	43%	46%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	64%	66%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	19%	21%	−2
CR Béni Thour or draw	59%	56%	+3
CR Béni Thour clean sheet	31%	–	–
USM Annaba clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.9 13.6 7.9 3.4 1 11.5 12.1 7.5 3.1 2 5.6 6.4 3.8 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CR Béni Thour down, USM Annaba across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,491 Ligue 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CR Béni Thour at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). USM Annaba away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for CR Béni Thour, 1.22 for USM Annaba. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CRB 0–0 USM · USM 2–1 CRB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 18 Sept

CR BÉNI THOUR

LLLWL1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–3

USM ANNABA

WLWWLD3–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27 · East

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSP Batna	6	+4	14
2	Azazga	6	+4	11
3	USM Annaba	6	+5	10
4	MO Constantine	6	+2	10
5	NC Magra	6	−1	10
6	JSM Skikda	5	+2	9
7	Khroub	6	+1	9
8	Nrb Beni Oulbene	6	0	8
9	US Chaouia	6	−2	8
10	MO Bejaia	5	+2	7
11	Paradou AC	5	+1	7
12	CA Batna	6	−1	6
13	Teleghma	6	−2	5
14	IRB Nezla	5	−3	4
15	CR Béni Thour	5	−6	3
16	JS Jijel	5	−6	1