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CR Béni Thour v IRB Nezla

CR Béni Thour

2–1Full time

IRB Nezla

Ligue 2 · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:57

CR Béni Thour 2–1 IRB Nezla CR BÉNI THOUR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CR Béni Thour win~~46%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.435

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.490

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CR Béni Thour win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: CR Béni Thour was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
1′KICK-OFF CR Béni Thour v IRB Nezla
28′We published CR Béni Thour at 46%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–7
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' CR Béni Thour 1–0 IRB Nezla
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' CR Béni Thour win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
30′We published CR Béni Thour at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' CR Béni Thour 1–0 IRB Nezla
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' CR Béni Thour win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME CR Béni Thour 1–0 IRB Nezla
46′SECOND HALF CR Béni Thour 1–0 IRB Nezla
57′We published CR Béni Thour at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' CR Béni Thour 2–0 IRB Nezla
69′We published CR Béni Thour at 46%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' CR Béni Thour win: 46% at kick-off, 98% now
73′We published CR Béni Thour at 46%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–13–1 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' CR Béni Thour 2–0 IRB Nezla
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' CR Béni Thour win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' CR Béni Thour win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
82′We published CR Béni Thour at 46%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 96–4–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' CR Béni Thour 2–1 IRB Nezla
FTFULL TIME CR Béni Thour 2–1 IRB Nezla
FTCR Béni Thour 2–1 IRB Nezla · CR Béni Thour win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

CR Béni Thour win46%

Draw26%

IRB Nezla win28%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

CR Béni Thour

IRB Nezla

4Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
20	IRB Nezla	3	−1	4
31	CR Béni Thour	3	−4	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cr béni thour winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

46% The market48%

Us46%

~~Market~~48%

We make CR Béni Thour a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cr béni thour win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CR Béni Thour win	46%	48%	−2
Draw	26%	30%	−4
IRB Nezla win	28%	22%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	44%	37%	+6
Both teams to score	46%	43%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	62%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	23%	19%	+4
CR Béni Thour or draw	72%	78%	−6
CR Béni Thour clean sheet	37%	–	–
IRB Nezla clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 9.0 9.7 4.7 1 12.9 11.6 6.1 2.2 2 8.6 8.3 4.2 3 4.1 4.0 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CR Béni Thour down, IRB Nezla across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,457 Ligue 2 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

CR Béni Thour at home: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). IRB Nezla away: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for CR Béni Thour, 1.03 for IRB Nezla. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Ligue 2 since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Ligue 2

CR BÉNI THOUR

DLWLLL0–0 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2

IRB NEZLA

LWD0–2 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RC Kouba	4	+10	12
2	Blida	4	+4	10
3	USM Annaba	4	+6	9
4	Azazga	4	+2	8
5	MSP Batna	4	+2	8
6	MC Saida	3	+2	7
7	Nrb Beni Oulbene	4	+2	7
8	Usm El Harrach	4	+1	7
9	Sidi Benali	4	0	7
10	NC Magra	4	−1	7
11	JSM Skikda	3	+2	6
12	ASM Oran	4	+1	6
13	MO Constantine	4	+1	6
14	Khroub	4	+1	6
15	GC Mascara	3	+1	5
16	WA Mostaganem	4	0	5
17	MO Bejaia	3	+1	4
18	Paradou AC	3	0	4
19	Mostaganem	4	−1	4
20	IRB Nezla	3	−1	4
21	WA Tlemcen	3	−1	4
22	Hussein Dey	4	−2	3
23	Koléa	3	−3	3
24	Teleghma	4	−2	2
25	CA Batna	4	−2	2
26	El Bayadh	4	−2	2
27	US Chaouia	4	−4	2
28	JS Jijel	3	−3	1
29	Tiaret	4	−4	1
30	Taghit	4	−6	1
31	CR Béni Thour	3	−4	0