Azazga v CR Béni Thour prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 17:31

Azazga 3–0 CR Béni Thour AZAZGA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Azazga win~~61%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.235

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.185

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Azazga win at 61%.
1′Much as we predicted: Azazga was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–23–17
1′KICK-OFF Azazga v CR Béni Thour
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Azazga win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
37′We said Azazga at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–35–16
40′We published Azazga at 61%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–13–3
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Azazga 1–0 CR Béni Thour
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Azazga win: 61% at kick-off, 84% now
41′Azazga score on 41′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–13–3
41′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 84–13–3
45′SECOND HALF Azazga 1–0 CR Béni Thour
46′We published Azazga at 61%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–3
47′HALF-TIME Azazga 1–0 CR Béni Thour
71′We published Azazga at 61%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Azazga win: 61% at kick-off, 91% now
83′We published Azazga at 61%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′We published Azazga at 61%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Azazga 2–0 CR Béni Thour
89′Azazga find the net on 88′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Azazga 3–0 CR Béni Thour
91′A goal for Azazga on 90′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
93′Full time, 3–0. We called Azazga at 61% — that one lands. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Azazga 3–0 CR Béni Thour
FTAzazga 3–0 CR Béni Thour · Azazga win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Azazga are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Azazga 61%, draw 23%, CR Béni Thour 17%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Azazga v CR Béni ThourBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Azazga win61%

Draw23%

CR Béni Thour win17%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Azazga

CR Béni Thour

5Days since last match6

Last match: 14 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

Last match: 13 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Azazga	5	+1	8
15	CR Béni Thour	4	−3	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · azazga winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 15 Oct 04:38 · locked at kick-off

61% The market65%

Us61%

~~Market~~65%

We make Azazga a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Azazga v CR Béni Thour~~1.75 – 0.75

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D2 L1 · W1 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 3~~7 v 15

~~The market · Azazga win~~65% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Azazga win The market, margin stripped

Published at 62%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Azazga win	61%	65%	−4
Draw	23%	23%	0
CR Béni Thour win	17%	12%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	45%	46%	−1
Both teams to score	42%	40%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	70%	69%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	27%	−3
Azazga or draw	83%	88%	−5
Azazga clean sheet	48%	–	–
CR Béni Thour clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 8.6 7.0 2.5 1 14.9 10.1 4.0 2 12.1 8.7 3.3 3 7.0 5.1 4 3.2 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Azazga down, CR Béni Thour across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,484 Ligue 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.0% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Azazga at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 2). CR Béni Thour away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Azazga, 0.75 for CR Béni Thour. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 18 Sept

AZAZGA

DWDWL2–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

CR BÉNI THOUR

LLLW1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · East

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSP Batna	5	+3	11
2	USM Annaba	6	+5	10
3	NC Magra	6	−1	10
4	JSM Skikda	5	+2	9
5	MO Constantine	5	+2	9
6	Khroub	6	+1	9
7	Azazga	5	+1	8
8	US Chaouia	6	−2	8
9	MO Bejaia	4	+3	7
10	Paradou AC	5	+1	7
11	Nrb Beni Oulbene	5	0	7
12	CA Batna	6	−1	6
13	Teleghma	6	−2	5
14	IRB Nezla	5	−3	4
15	CR Béni Thour	4	−3	3
16	JS Jijel	5	−6	1