ASM Oran v Sidi Benali prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

ASM Oran 0–0 Sidi Benali ASM ORAN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ASM Oran win~~67%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.106

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.001

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ASM Oran win at 67%.
1′Much as we predicted: ASM Oran was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 66–20–14
1′KICK-OFF ASM Oran v Sidi Benali
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' ASM Oran win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
35′We said ASM Oran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 55–31–14
38′We said ASM Oran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–32–14
45′HALF-TIME ASM Oran 0–0 Sidi Benali
46′SECOND HALF ASM Oran 0–0 Sidi Benali
47′We said ASM Oran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–37–13
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' ASM Oran win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
55′We said ASM Oran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–43–12
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 44–43–12
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was ASM Oran win 44%)
62′We said ASM Oran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–50–11
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' ASM Oran win: 67% at kick-off, 37% now
68′We said ASM Oran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–56–10
72′We said ASM Oran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–62–9
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' ASM Oran win: 67% at kick-off, 27% now
76′We said ASM Oran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–68–8
80′We said ASM Oran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–75–6
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' ASM Oran win: 67% at kick-off, 17% now
83′We said ASM Oran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–82–5
87′We said ASM Oran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–88–3
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' ASM Oran win: 67% at kick-off, 7% now
92′We said ASM Oran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–1
FTFULL TIME ASM Oran 0–0 Sidi Benali
FTASM Oran 0–0 Sidi Benali · ASM Oran win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ASM Oran are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ASM Oran 67%, draw 20%, Sidi Benali 14%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on ASM Oran v Sidi BenaliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

ASM Oran win67%

Draw20%

Sidi Benali win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ASM Oran

Sidi Benali

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 2 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	ASM Oran	6	+6	10
8	Sidi Benali	6	0	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asm oran winFirst published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

67% The market62%

Us67%

~~Market~~62%

We make ASM Oran a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ASM Oran v Sidi Benali~~2.00 – 0.70

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 10~~5 v 8

~~The market · ASM Oran win~~62% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ASM Oran win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ASM Oran win	67%	62%	+5
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Sidi Benali win	14%	15%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	49%	+1
Both teams to score	42%	46%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	29%	0
ASM Oran or draw	86%	85%	+1
ASM Oran clean sheet	50%	–	–
Sidi Benali clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 7.2 5.6 1 14.0 9.0 3.4 2 12.8 8.7 3.1 3 8.4 5.6 4 4.4 2.9 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+ASM Oran down, Sidi Benali across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,491 Ligue 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

ASM Oran at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sidi Benali away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

2.00 goals for ASM Oran, 0.70 for Sidi Benali. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 19 Sept

ASM ORAN

LWLWWD0–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 6–1 · 0–0

SIDI BENALI

WLDWLW1–0 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27 · West

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Blida	7	+9	17
2	RC Kouba	6	+10	14
3	GC Mascara	6	+7	14
4	MC Saida	6	+4	14
5	ASM Oran	6	+6	10
6	Usm El Harrach	6	+2	10
7	Mostaganem	6	+2	10
8	Sidi Benali	6	0	10
9	WA Tlemcen	6	−3	7
10	WA Mostaganem	6	−1	6
11	Hussein Dey	6	−2	6
12	Tiaret	6	+1	4
13	RC Arba	3	−4	3
14	Koléa	5	−6	3
15	El Bayadh	6	−6	2
16	Taghit	7	−19	1