USM Alger v JS Saoura prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:54

USM Alger 1–0 JS Saoura USM ALGER WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said USM Alger win~~47%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.420

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.244

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said USM Alger win at 47%.
2′Much as we predicted: USM Alger was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
2′KICK-OFF USM Alger v JS Saoura
30′We published USM Alger at 47%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' USM Alger 1–0 JS Saoura
30′⚽ GOAL · 31' USM Alger 1–0 JS Saoura
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' USM Alger win: 47% at kick-off, 78% now
32′USM Alger find the net on 31′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–5
42′⚽ GOAL · 31' USM Alger 1–0 JS Saoura · M. Bouderbala (assist H. Loucif)
43′We published USM Alger at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
45′SECOND HALF USM Alger 1–0 JS Saoura
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' USM Alger · On: M. A. Gherbi · Off: I. Chetti
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' JS Saoura · On: C. Wayou · Off: O. Bentaleb
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' JS Saoura · On: E. I. Fettouhi N. · Off: K. Dahamni
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' JS Saoura
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' A. Tra Bi Tra · JS Saoura
66′We published USM Alger at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' USM Alger · On: S. Radouani · Off: M. Bouderbala
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' USM Alger · On: A. Khaldi · Off: D. Kamagate
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' USM Alger · On: A. Benguit · Off: F. Boulaya
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' USM Alger win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' JS Saoura · On: M. Belghanami · Off: E. I. Fettouhi N.
72′🟨 YELLOW · 73' USM Alger
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' M. A. Gherbi · USM Alger
76′We published USM Alger at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
78′🟨 YELLOW · 79' USM Alger
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' I. Azzi · USM Alger
85′We published USM Alger at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–4–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' USM Alger · On: C. Malone Junior · Off: G. Likonza
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' JS Saoura · On: O. Bouguerri · Off: O. Ashiraf
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' JS Saoura · On: M. Fenniri · Off: I. Atallah
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' USM Alger win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
92′🟨 YELLOW · 93' C. Wayou · JS Saoura
FTFULL TIME USM Alger 1–0 JS Saoura
FTUSM Alger 1–0 JS Saoura · USM Alger win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on USM Alger v JS SaouraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:56 · locked at kick-off

USM Alger win47%

Draw29%

JS Saoura win24%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 20:15

Line-ups

USM Alger

JS Saoura

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

USM Alger

JS Saoura

5Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	USM Alger	4	+2	7
14	JS Saoura	3	−4	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

USM Alger

Formation not confirmed

30 O. Benbot

5 I. Azzi

28 A. Abada

12 H. Loucif

20 R. Mahrouz

11 G. Likonza

6 Z. Draoui

23 I. Chetti

9 F. Boulaya

24 M. Bouderbala

29 D. Kamagate

Coach · Lamine N'Diyae

Substitutes

22 · M. A. Gherbi

4 · C. Malone Junior

16 · M. Hadid

14 · S. E. Bouziani

8 · A. Benguit

7 · A. Khaldi

10 · D. Bensaadallah

17 · A. Tendeng

19 · S. Radouani

JS Saoura

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Salhi

24 A. Barkat

4 F. Mebarki

5 A. Tra Bi Tra

25 A. Benmiloud

14 K. Dahamni

18 I. Atallah

21 O. Bentaleb

23 K. Allaoui

29 O. Ashiraf

27 O. Daibeche

Coach · –

Substitutes

10 · E. I. Fettouhi N.

15 · O. Bouguerri

9 · M. Belghanami

11 · M. Fenniri

19 · C. Wayou

7 · I. Yahya

16 · A. Hannane

2 · O. Yerou

28 · A. Cherir

Our number · usm alger winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:56 · locked at kick-off

47% The market60%

Us47%

~~Market~~60%

We make USM Alger a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · usm alger win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
USM Alger win	47%	60%	−13
Draw	29%	26%	+3
JS Saoura win	24%	14%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	36%	39%	−3
Both teams to score	41%	38%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	63%	64%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	17%	21%	−4
USM Alger or draw	76%	86%	−10
USM Alger clean sheet	44%	–	–
JS Saoura clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.3%

0123450 12.3 9.8 4.2 1 15.3 12.8 5.3 2 9.9 8.2 3.4 3 4.3 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+USM Alger down, JS Saoura across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,297 Ligue 1 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.0% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

USM Alger at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). JS Saoura away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for USM Alger, 0.83 for JS Saoura. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~USM 1–2 JSS · JSS 1–0 USM · JSS 2–1 USM · USM 2–0 JSS

Form · last six in Ligue 1

USM ALGER

DDDWWL2–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–1

JS SAOURA

DDWLDD0–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CR Belouizdad	5	+4	13
2	MC Oran	3	+3	7
3	USM Alger	4	+2	7
4	CS Constantine	5	+1	7
5	MC Alger	2	+3	6
6	Ben Aknoun	4	+1	6
7	JS Kabylie	3	+1	6
8	MB Rouisset	4	0	6
9	Khenchela	4	+1	5
10	ES Setif	4	+2	4
11	JS El Biar	5	−1	4
12	Olympique Akbou	4	−1	4
13	Témouchent	4	−2	4
14	JS Saoura	3	−4	2
15	US Biskra	4	−5	2
16	ASO Chlef	4	−5	1