Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Ligue 1 › USM Alger v CR Belouizdad

Back
Algeria flag

USM Alger v CR Belouizdad

USM Alger
2–2Full time
CR Belouizdad

Ligue 1 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17
USM Alger 2–2 CR Belouizdad USM ALGER WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said USM Alger win36%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.725
The market’s Brier score0.693

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said USM Alger win at 36%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: USM Alger was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–31–34
  3. 1′KICK-OFF USM Alger v CR Belouizdad
  4. 8′CR Belouizdad find the net on 8′. 0–0 · 35–32–33
  5. 9′We said USM Alger at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–22–66
  6. 9′⚽ GOAL · 8' USM Alger 0–1 CR Belouizdad
  7. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' USM Alger win: 36% at kick-off, 13% now
  8. 9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' CR Belouizdad win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was USM Alger win 35%)
  9. 27′PENALTY MISSED · 26' USM Alger
  10. 29′A goal for CR Belouizdad on 28′. 0–1 · 9–22–69
  11. 29′We said USM Alger at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
  12. 29′⚽ GOAL · 28' USM Alger 0–2 CR Belouizdad
  13. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' USM Alger win: 36% at kick-off, 2% now
  14. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' CR Belouizdad
  15. 42′SUBSTITUTION · 39' CR Belouizdad · On: F. Etouga · Off: M. Ben Hammouda
  16. 45′USM Alger find the net on 45′. 1–2. 1–2 · 7–21–72
  17. 45′We said USM Alger at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–21–72
  18. 45′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 7–21–72
  19. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45+10' USM Alger 1–2 CR Belouizdad
  20. 45′HALF-TIME USM Alger 1–2 CR Belouizdad
  21. 45′SECOND HALF USM Alger 1–2 CR Belouizdad
  22. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' USM Alger · On: D. Bensaadallah · Off: H. Loucif
  23. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' CR Belouizdad
  24. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 46' USM Alger · On: F. Boulaya · Off: G. Likonza
  25. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 46' USM Alger · On: D. Bensaadallah · Off: Z. Draoui
  26. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' CR Belouizdad
  27. 57′We said USM Alger at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 2–2 · 23–54–23
  28. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' USM Alger 2–2 CR Belouizdad
  29. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' USM Alger win: 36% at kick-off, 23% now
  30. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was CR Belouizdad win 76%)
  31. 59′A goal for USM Alger on 57′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 23–55–22
  32. 59′4 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 23–55–22
  33. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' USM Alger
  34. 66′We said USM Alger at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–62–19
  35. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' USM Alger win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
  36. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' CR Belouizdad · On: J. Ngandziami · Off: F. El Melali
  37. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' CR Belouizdad
  38. 79′🟥 RED CARD · 79' USM Alger
  39. 80′A red card for USM Alger on 79′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–2 · 10–80–10
  40. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' USM Alger · On: A. Tendeng · Off: A. Benguit
  41. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' USM Alger win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
  42. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 83' H. Benayada · CR Belouizdad
  43. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 84' CR Belouizdad
  44. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' CR Belouizdad · On: M. Y. Chelfaoui · Off: D. Kaassis
  45. 90′Full time, 2–2. We called USM Alger at 36% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–2 · 0–100–0
  46. FTFULL TIME USM Alger 2–2 CR Belouizdad
  47. FTUSM Alger 2–2 CR Belouizdad · USM Alger win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with USM Alger just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: USM Alger 36%, draw 30%, CR Belouizdad 34%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on USM Alger v CR BelouizdadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 03:44 · locked at kick-off

USM Alger win36%
Draw30%
CR Belouizdad win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:45

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

USM Alger

CR Belouizdad

11Days since last match12

Last match: 13 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

Last match: 12 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2CR Belouizdad5+413
5USM Alger5+310

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · usm alger winFirst published 22 Oct 03:44 · updated 24 Oct 03:52 · locked at kick-off
36% The market35%
Us36%
Market35%

We make USM Alger a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · USM Alger v CR Belouizdad1.05 – 1.02
Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 4 SeptW3 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L0
Table places · points 10 v 135 v 2
The market · USM Alger win35% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 22 OCT 03:4424 OCT 16:50
Our probability · USM Alger win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
USM Alger win36%35%+1
Draw30%32%−2
CR Belouizdad win34%33%+1
Over 2.5 goals34%35%−1
Both teams to score41%43%−2
Over 1.5 goals61%61%0
Over 3.5 goals16%18%−2
USM Alger or draw66%67%−1
USM Alger clean sheet36%––
CR Belouizdad clean sheet35%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%
0123450 13.0 12.6 6.6 2.3 1 13.0 13.5 6.8 2.4 2 7.0 7.0 3.6 3 2.5 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+USM Alger down, CR Belouizdad across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting1.70
Over 2.53 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsUSM 1–1 CRB · USM 2–1 CRB · CRB 0–0 USM · USM 2–0 CRB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 4 Sept

USM ALGER

DWWLW0–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

CR BELOUIZDAD

DWWWW3–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1MC Oran6+514
2CR Belouizdad5+413
3MB Rouisset6+312
4JS Kabylie5+410
5USM Alger5+310
6Olympique Akbou6+310
7JS El Biar7+18
8MC Alger3+37
9CS Constantine7−47
10Ben Aknoun506
11ES Setif5+25
12Khenchela505
13Témouchent6−45
14ASO Chlef6−53
15JS Saoura5−62
16US Biskra6−92

The competition's standings before kick-off.