US Biskra v MC Oran prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:57

US Biskra 0–1 MC Oran US BISKRA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said US Biskra win~~35%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.687

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.805

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said US Biskra win at 35%.
1′Much as we predicted: US Biskra was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–33–32
1′KICK-OFF US Biskra v MC Oran
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was US Biskra win 32%)
32′🟨 YELLOW · 33' US Biskra
35′🟨 YELLOW · 36' MC Oran
38′SUBSTITUTION · 38' US Biskra · On: F. Bahlouli · Off: M. I. Belhadj
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' US Biskra win: 35% at kick-off, 26% now
45′SECOND HALF US Biskra 0–0 MC Oran
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' US Biskra · On: A. Zeke Omwele · Off: M. Hammia
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' US Biskra win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' US Biskra win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
53′We said US Biskra at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–54–22
54′🟨 YELLOW · 55' MC Oran
55′🟨 YELLOW · 56' US Biskra
63′We said US Biskra at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–18
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' MC Oran · On: M. Abdelkader · Off: E. Matouti
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' MC Oran · On: C. Aoudjane · Off: A. Ghenam
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' US Biskra · On: A. Ghorab · Off: O. Darfalou
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' US Biskra win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' US Biskra · On: M. Belkhadem · Off: C. Debbih
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' US Biskra · On: K. Neche · Off: Y. Saindou
73′We said US Biskra at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' US Biskra 0–1 MC Oran
75′⚽ GOAL · 76' US Biskra 0–1 MC Oran
76′🟨 YELLOW · 77' MC Oran
77′MC Oran ahead on 76′ through M. Abdelkader. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–10–89
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' US Biskra win: 35% at kick-off, 1% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' MC Oran win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
79′We said US Biskra at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' MC Oran · On: A. Bourdim · Off: O. Embarek
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' US Biskra
85′🟨 YELLOW · 83' US Biskra
FTFULL TIME US Biskra 0–1 MC Oran
FTUS Biskra 0–1 MC Oran · US Biskra win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

US Biskra win35%

Draw33%

MC Oran win32%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 15:00

Venue18 February Stadium

Line-ups

US Biskra

MC Oran

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

US Biskra

MC Oran

6Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	MC Oran	3	+3	7
15	US Biskra	4	−5	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

US Biskra

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Benchlef

22 I. Bekakchi

17 K. Bouhakak

5 M. Barka

20 R. Dahmani

23 A. Benamara

14 Y. Saindou

10 C. Debbih

11 M. I. Belhadj

13 O. Darfalou

24 M. Hammia

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · M. Belkhadem

8 · K. Neche

4 · A. Oukkal

27 · K. Belmiloud

7 · F. Bahlouli

26 · O. A. Ammar

28 · A. Zeke Omwele

29 · A. Ghorab

MC Oran

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Zeghba

20 M. Belkhiter

23 A. Hamra

5 M. Hadded

12 O. Kaddour

8 J. Aguieb

6 O. Embarek

7 E. Matouti

14 O. Coumbassa

26 I. Saadi

28 A. Ghenam

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · A. Bourdim

17 · C. Aoudjane

29 · M. Mahadane

21 · M. Abdelkader

13 · M. Keniche

16 · K. Soufi

11 · B. Traore

3 · O. Bagnama

Our number · us biskra winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

35% The market39%

Us35%

~~Market~~39%

We make US Biskra a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · us biskra win The market, margin stripped

Published at 34%, 35% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
US Biskra win	35%	39%	−5
Draw	33%	34%	−1
MC Oran win	32%	27%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	27%	30%	−2
Both teams to score	35%	39%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	54%	55%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	11%	14%	−3
US Biskra or draw	68%	73%	−5
US Biskra clean sheet	42%	–	–
MC Oran clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.8%

0123450 16.8 14.3 6.4 1 15.0 13.3 5.8 2 7.0 6.1 2.7 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+US Biskra down, MC Oran across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,297 Ligue 1 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.0% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

US Biskra at home: 0.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). MC Oran away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for US Biskra, 0.88 for MC Oran. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~USB 0–2 MCO · MCO 1–0 USB · USB 0–0 MCO · MCO 0–1 USB

Form · last six in Ligue 1

US BISKRA

LLDLDL1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–4

MC ORAN

WLDWWD1–0 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CR Belouizdad	5	+4	13
2	MC Oran	3	+3	7
3	USM Alger	4	+2	7
4	CS Constantine	5	+1	7
5	MC Alger	2	+3	6
6	Ben Aknoun	4	+1	6
7	JS Kabylie	3	+1	6
8	MB Rouisset	4	0	6
9	Khenchela	4	+1	5
10	ES Setif	4	+2	4
11	JS El Biar	5	−1	4
12	Olympique Akbou	4	−1	4
13	Témouchent	4	−2	4
14	JS Saoura	3	−4	2
15	US Biskra	4	−5	2
16	ASO Chlef	4	−5	1