Témouchent v MB Rouisset prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 20:30

Témouchent 0–2 MB Rouisset TÉMOUCHENT WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Témouchent win~~44%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.840

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.908

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Témouchent win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Témouchent 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–30–25
1′KICK-OFF Témouchent v MB Rouisset
30′30′ and it is 0–1: MB Rouisset have scored. 0–1 · 12–26–62
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Témouchent 0–1 MB Rouisset
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Témouchent win: 44% at kick-off, 12% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' MB Rouisset win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Témouchent win 12%)
31′We said Témouchent at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–26–62
32′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 12–26–63
34′Témouchent are down to ten from 34′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 11–25–63
34′🟥 RED CARD · 34' Témouchent
39′🟥 RED CARD · 34' M. Senhadji · Témouchent
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' MB Rouisset
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Témouchent
42′We said Témouchent at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
45′🟨 YELLOW · 41' I. Saihi · Témouchent
45′HALF-TIME Témouchent 0–1 MB Rouisset
46′SECOND HALF Témouchent 0–1 MB Rouisset
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' MB Rouisset · On: B. Hend · Off: M. Djahdou
61′We said Témouchent at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Témouchent win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Témouchent · On: N. Merdja · Off: M. H. Hedroug
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Témouchent · On: A. Hamri · Off: M. Toumi
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' MB Rouisset · On: R. Hamroune · Off: M. Sy
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Témouchent 0–2 MB Rouisset
75′MB Rouisset find the net on 74′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
79′SUBSTITUTION · 70' MB Rouisset · On: M. Tlili · Off: N. Ben Kheira
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Témouchent · On: K. Baaziz · Off: A. Berkoun Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' MB Rouisset · On: A. Derder · Off: Z. Benabda
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' MB Rouisset
FTFULL TIME Témouchent 0–2 MB Rouisset
FTTémouchent 0–2 MB Rouisset · Témouchent win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Témouchent v MB RouissetBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 17:55 · locked at kick-off

Témouchent win44%

Draw30%

MB Rouisset win26%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:00

Line-ups

Témouchent

MB Rouisset

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Témouchent

MB Rouisset

5Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	MB Rouisset	4	0	6
13	Témouchent	4	-2	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Témouchent

Formation not confirmed

16 A. Morcely

21 A. Maddah

4 I. Chahrour

2 M. Larbi

6 M. Senhadji

25 H. Boutamina

11 M. H. Hedroug

26 I. Saihi

8 A. Berkoun

14 B. Boubaker

27 M. Toumi

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · N. Merdja

1 · F. Boukerrit

3 · S. Atmania

20 · M. Itim

23 · A. Belkacemi

29 · A. Hamri

12 · R. Bounoua

17 · E. K. Khodja

15 · K. Baaziz

MB Rouisset

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Rahal

17 Z. Benabda

25 H. Salem

5 B. Benammar

4 H. Fatawu

26 A. El Orfi

13 M. Moluh Mounta

8 M. Midoune

7 N. Ben Kheira

22 M. Djahdou

9 M. Sy

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · A. Derder

19 · R. Hamroune

18 · A. Gaid

24 · A. K. Amqran

11 · B. Hend

6 · M. Benzaid

29 · M. Muhammad

16 · L. Aggoune

23 · M. Tlili

Our number · témouchent winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 17:55 · locked at kick-off

44% The market46%

Us44%

~~Market~~46%

We make Témouchent a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Témouchent v MB Rouisset~~1.18 – 0.82

~~Last six in Ligue 1~~W1 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~13 v 8

~~The market · Témouchent win~~46% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · témouchent win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Témouchent win	44%	46%	−2
Draw	30%	32%	−1
MB Rouisset win	26%	23%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	32%	34%	−1
Both teams to score	38%	40%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	59%	59%	0
Over 3.5 goals	15%	16%	−2
Témouchent or draw	74%	77%	−3
Témouchent clean sheet	45%	–	–
MB Rouisset clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.8%

0123450 14.3 11.1 4.6 1 15.8 12.6 5.1 2 9.3 7.3 3.0 3 3.8 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Témouchent down, MB Rouisset across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,300 Ligue 1 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.5% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Témouchent at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 2). MB Rouisset away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Témouchent, 0.82 for MB Rouisset. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Ligue 1 since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Ligue 1

TÉMOUCHENT

DLWL1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

MB ROUISSET

WLLWLW1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CR Belouizdad	5	4	13
2	MC Oran	4	4	10
3	USM Alger	5	3	10
4	MC Alger	3	3	7
5	CS Constantine	5	1	7
6	Ben Aknoun	4	1	6
7	JS Kabylie	3	1	6
8	MB Rouisset	4	0	6
9	Khenchela	4	1	5
10	ES Setif	4	2	4
11	Olympique Akbou	4	-1	4
12	JS El Biar	5	-1	4
13	Témouchent	4	-2	4
14	ASO Chlef	5	-5	2
15	JS Saoura	4	-5	2
16	US Biskra	5	-6	2