MC Oran v Khenchela prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

MC Oran 1–0 Khenchela MC ORAN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said MC Oran win~~52%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.342

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.295

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said MC Oran win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: MC Oran was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–27–21
1′KICK-OFF MC Oran v Khenchela
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Khenchela
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' MC Oran win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
42′We said MC Oran at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–41–19
45′We said MC Oran at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–18
45′HALF-TIME MC Oran 0–0 Khenchela
46′SECOND HALF MC Oran 0–0 Khenchela
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was MC Oran win 38%)
55′We said MC Oran at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–49–16
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' MC Oran win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Khenchela
63′We said MC Oran at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–56–14
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Khenchela
64′MC Oran find the net on 64′. 0–0 · 28–57–14
65′We published MC Oran at 52%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–1
65′SUBSTITUTION · 58' MC Oran · On: A. Ghenam · Off: C. Aoudjane
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' MC Oran 1–0 Khenchela
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' MC Oran win: 52% at kick-off, 86% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' MC Oran win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 12%)
72′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Khenchela · On: M. Nezla · Off: A. Mathew Fall
74′We published MC Oran at 52%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' MC Oran win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 72' MC Oran · On: J. Aguieb · Off: E. Matouti
81′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Khenchela · On: A. Chaibi · Off: Y. Douar
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' MC Oran · On: H. Baouche · Off: I. Saadi Corrected
83′We published MC Oran at 52%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′Full time, 1–0. We called MC Oran at 52% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Khenchela · On: F. Amrane · Off: Z. Zaitri
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' MC Oran
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' O. Bagnama · MC Oran
FTFULL TIME MC Oran 1–0 Khenchela
FTMC Oran 1–0 Khenchela · MC Oran win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

MC Oran are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: MC Oran 52%, draw 27%, Khenchela 21%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on MC Oran v KhenchelaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

MC Oran win52%

Draw27%

Khenchela win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 6

Line-ups

MC Oran

Khenchela

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MC Oran

Khenchela

4Days since last match5

Last match: 13 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

Last match: 12 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	MC Oran	4	+4	10
11	Khenchela	4	+1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

MC Oran

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Zeghba

20 M. Belkhiter

5 M. Hadded

23 A. Hamra

13 O. Kaddour

14 O. Coumbassa

6 O. Embarek

17 C. Aoudjane

21 M. Abdelkader

7 E. Matouti

26 I. Saadi

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · K. Soufi

3 · O. Bagnama

22 · H. Baouche

8 · J. Aguieb

4 · A. Bourdim

11 · B. Traore

– · M. Keniche

28 · A. Ghenam

29 · M. Mahadane

Khenchela

Formation not confirmed

16 O. Litim

27 Z. Zaitri

7 A. Askar

19 A. Dris

4 I. Boubekeur

5 Y. Douar

6 A. Zenasni

22 N. Benzid

14 K. Issouf

29 A. Camara

9 A. Mathew Fall

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · H. Bencheikh El Fegoun

17 · S. Matallah

11 · A. Chaibi

8 · A. Sameur

18 · A. Boukhalfa

68 · M. Boukassi

23 · F. Amrane

15 · M. Nezla

12 · Z. Meddour

Our number · mc oran winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:29 · locked at kick-off

52% The market56%

Us52%

~~Market~~56%

We make MC Oran a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · MC Oran v Khenchela~~1.46 – 0.80

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D1 L0 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 5~~2 v 11

~~The market · MC Oran win~~56% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · MC Oran win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MC Oran win	52%	56%	−4
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Khenchela win	21%	16%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	39%	38%	+1
Both teams to score	42%	40%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	66%	63%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	19%	20%	−1
MC Oran or draw	79%	84%	−5
MC Oran clean sheet	45%	–	–
Khenchela clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 10.8 8.3 3.4 1 15.1 12.2 4.8 2 11.0 8.7 3.5 3 5.4 4.3 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MC Oran down, Khenchela across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,303 Ligue 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.0% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

MC Oran at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Khenchela away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for MC Oran, 0.80 for Khenchela. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MCO 2–1 KHE · KHE 2–0 MCO · KHE 2–1 MCO · MCO 0–0 KHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 4 Sept

MC ORAN

WWDW2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

KHENCHELA

DDLW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CR Belouizdad	5	+4	13
2	MC Oran	4	+4	10
3	USM Alger	5	+3	10
4	MB Rouisset	5	+2	9
5	MC Alger	3	+3	7
6	CS Constantine	5	+1	7
7	JS Kabylie	4	+1	7
8	Olympique Akbou	5	0	7
9	Ben Aknoun	5	0	6
10	ES Setif	5	+2	5
11	Khenchela	4	+1	5
12	JS El Biar	5	−1	4
13	Témouchent	5	−4	4
14	ASO Chlef	5	−5	2
15	JS Saoura	4	−5	2
16	US Biskra	5	−6	2