MB Rouisset v JS Saoura prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:31

MB Rouisset 1–0 JS Saoura MB ROUISSET WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said MB Rouisset win~~43%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.479

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.442

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said MB Rouisset win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: MB Rouisset 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–27
1′KICK-OFF MB Rouisset v JS Saoura
6′A goal for MB Rouisset on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
6′We said MB Rouisset at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–9
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' MB Rouisset 1–0 JS Saoura
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' MB Rouisset win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
9′M. Midoune scores for MB Rouisset on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
23′We said MB Rouisset at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' JS Saoura
29′JS Saoura are down to ten from 28′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 75–18–6
29′🟥 RED CARD · 28' JS Saoura
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–6
45′HALF-TIME MB Rouisset 1–0 JS Saoura
46′SECOND HALF MB Rouisset 1–0 JS Saoura
50′🟨 YELLOW · 48' JS Saoura
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' MB Rouisset
54′We said MB Rouisset at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' MB Rouisset win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
67′We said MB Rouisset at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
77′We said MB Rouisset at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' JS Saoura
79′SUBSTITUTION · 70' JS Saoura · On: D. Benyahia · Off: O. Ashiraf
79′SUBSTITUTION · 64' MB Rouisset · On: N. Ben Kheira · Off: R. Hamroune
81′SUBSTITUTION · 46' JS Saoura · On: I. Atallah · Off: M. Belghanami
81′SUBSTITUTION · 64' MB Rouisset · On: M. Sy · Off: M. Tlili
82′SUBSTITUTION · 64' MB Rouisset · On: M. Moluh Mounta · Off: A. Amokrane
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' JS Saoura · On: M. Fenniri · Off: E. I. Fettouhi N.
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' MB Rouisset win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
84′We said MB Rouisset at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' JS Saoura · On: K. Dahamni · Off: O. Daibeche
89′SUBSTITUTION · 80' MB Rouisset · On: O. Khiari · Off: B. Hend
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' JS Saoura
93′SUBSTITUTION · 85' MB Rouisset · On: M. Benzaid · Off: A. El Orfi
FTFULL TIME MB Rouisset 1–0 JS Saoura
FTMB Rouisset 1–0 JS Saoura · MB Rouisset win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

MB Rouisset are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: MB Rouisset 43%, draw 29%, JS Saoura 27%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on MB Rouisset v JS SaouraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

MB Rouisset win43%

Draw29%

JS Saoura win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:45

RoundMatchday 6

Line-ups

MB Rouisset

JS Saoura

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MB Rouisset

JS Saoura

4Days since last match5

Last match: 14 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

Last match: 13 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	MB Rouisset	5	+2	9
15	JS Saoura	4	−5	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

MB Rouisset

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Rahal

4 H. Fatawu

5 B. Benammar

8 M. Midoune

11 B. Hend

19 R. Hamroune

23 M. Tlili

24 A. Amokrane

25 H. Salem

26 A. El Orfi

27 A. Derder

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · M. Benzaid

7 · N. Ben Kheira

9 · M. Sy

13 · M. Moluh Mounta

14 · A. Chadli

16 · L. Aggoune

17 · Z. Benabda

18 · A. Gaid

28 · O. Khiari

JS Saoura

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Salhi

4 F. Mebarki

5 A. Tra Bi Tra

9 M. Belghanami

10 E. I. Fettouhi N.

19 C. Wayou

23 K. Allaoui

24 A. Barkat

25 A. Benmiloud

27 O. Daibeche

29 O. Ashiraf

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · A. Karim

2 · O. Yerou

7 · D. Benyahia

8 · A. Khoumani

11 · M. Fenniri

14 · K. Dahamni

18 · I. Atallah

21 · O. Bentaleb

30 · M. A. Merhab

Our number · mb rouisset winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:38 · locked at kick-off

43% The market46%

Us43%

~~Market~~46%

We make MB Rouisset a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · MB Rouisset v JS Saoura~~1.22 – 0.90

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D0 L2 · W0 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 2~~4 v 15

~~The market · MB Rouisset win~~46% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · MB Rouisset win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MB Rouisset win	43%	46%	−3
Draw	29%	32%	−3
JS Saoura win	27%	22%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	36%	31%	+5
Both teams to score	41%	38%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	62%	57%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	17%	15%	+2
MB Rouisset or draw	73%	78%	−5
MB Rouisset clean sheet	41%	–	–
JS Saoura clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%

0123450 12.4 10.7 4.9 1 14.5 13.0 5.8 2 8.9 7.8 3.5 3 3.7 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MB Rouisset down, JS Saoura across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,305 Ligue 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 28.2% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

MB Rouisset at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). JS Saoura away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for MB Rouisset, 0.90 for JS Saoura. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MBR 1–0 JSS · JSS 1–2 MBR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 4 Sept

MB ROUISSET

LWLWW0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–0

JS SAOURA

LDDL0–4 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MC Oran	5	+5	13
2	CR Belouizdad	5	+4	13
3	USM Alger	5	+3	10
4	MB Rouisset	5	+2	9
5	MC Alger	3	+3	7
6	JS El Biar	6	+1	7
7	JS Kabylie	4	+1	7
8	Olympique Akbou	5	0	7
9	CS Constantine	6	−1	7
10	Ben Aknoun	5	0	6
11	ES Setif	5	+2	5
12	Khenchela	5	0	5
13	Témouchent	5	−4	4
14	ASO Chlef	5	−5	2
15	JS Saoura	4	−5	2
16	US Biskra	5	−6	2