Khenchela v JS Kabylie prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Khenchela 0–3 JS Kabylie KHENCHELA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Khenchela win~~39%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.691

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.623

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Khenchela win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Khenchela 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
1′KICK-OFF Khenchela v JS Kabylie
19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' JS Kabylie
21′Khenchela are down to ten from 21′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 36–34–30
21′🟥 RED CARD · 21' Khenchela
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Khenchela
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' JS Kabylie
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Khenchela win 35%)
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' JS Kabylie
45′HALF-TIME Khenchela 0–0 JS Kabylie
45′SECOND HALF Khenchela 0–0 JS Kabylie
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' JS Kabylie · On: M. Hamidi · Off: Y. Lagha
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Khenchela win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
49′A goal for JS Kabylie on 49′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–22–71
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Khenchela 0–1 JS Kabylie
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Khenchela win: 39% at kick-off, 7% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' JS Kabylie win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 46%)
50′We said Khenchela at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–22–71
50′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 7–22–71
55′JS Kabylie find the net on 55′. 0–1 · 6–21–73
55′We said Khenchela at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Khenchela 0–2 JS Kabylie
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Khenchela
64′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' JS Kabylie
64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Khenchela · On: A. Mathew Fall · Off: M. Nezla
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Khenchela 0–3 JS Kabylie
65′JS Kabylie find the net on 65′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
83′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Khenchela · On: F. Amrane · Off: A. Chaibi
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Khenchela
88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' JS Kabylie · On: A. Bendouma · Off: L. Akhrib
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' JS Kabylie · On: M. Bott · Off: S. Benchamma
89′SUBSTITUTION · 77' JS Kabylie · On: Y. Izem · Off: C. Boulkaboul
90′0–3 at the end. Our 39% on Khenchela misses, and the record keeps it. 0–3 · 0–0–100
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Khenchela · On: S. Matallah · Off: K. Issouf
92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Khenchela · On: Z. Meddour · Off: A. Askar
FTFULL TIME Khenchela 0–3 JS Kabylie
FTKhenchela 0–3 JS Kabylie · Khenchela win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Khenchela are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Khenchela 39%, draw 29%, JS Kabylie 32%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Khenchela v JS KabylieBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Khenchela win39%

Draw29%

JS Kabylie win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Khenchela

JS Kabylie

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	JS Kabylie	5	+4	10
12	Khenchela	5	0	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · khenchela winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

39% The market32%

Us39%

~~Market~~32%

We make Khenchela a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Khenchela v JS Kabylie~~1.19 – 1.07

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 10~~12 v 4

~~The market · Khenchela win~~32% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Khenchela win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Khenchela win	39%	32%	+7
Draw	29%	32%	−3
JS Kabylie win	32%	36%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	39%	36%	+3
Both teams to score	45%	45%	0
Over 1.5 goals	66%	61%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	19%	19%	0
Khenchela or draw	68%	64%	+4
Khenchela clean sheet	35%	–	–
JS Kabylie clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.9 10.9 5.9 2.1 1 12.3 13.3 6.9 2.5 2 7.4 7.8 4.1 3 3.0 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Khenchela down, JS Kabylie across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,310 Ligue 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.5% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.12 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Khenchela at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). JS Kabylie away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Khenchela, 1.07 for JS Kabylie. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.12

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KHE 2–1 JSK · JSK 1–0 KHE · KHE 0–1 JSK · JSK 1–0 KHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 4 Sept

KHENCHELA

DDLWL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

JS KABYLIE

WLWDW1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MC Oran	6	+5	14
2	CR Belouizdad	5	+4	13
3	MB Rouisset	6	+3	12
4	JS Kabylie	5	+4	10
5	USM Alger	5	+3	10
6	Olympique Akbou	6	+3	10
7	JS El Biar	7	+1	8
8	MC Alger	3	+3	7
9	CS Constantine	7	−4	7
10	Ben Aknoun	5	0	6
11	ES Setif	5	+2	5
12	Khenchela	5	0	5
13	Témouchent	6	−4	5
14	ASO Chlef	6	−5	3
15	JS Saoura	5	−6	2
16	US Biskra	6	−9	2