Khenchela v CS Constantine prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:01

Khenchela 2–0 CS Constantine KHENCHELA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Khenchela win~~43%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.495

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.525

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Khenchela win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Khenchela 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
1′KICK-OFF Khenchela v CS Constantine
6′Little has changed for our model: Khenchela 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
43′⚽ GOAL · 44' Khenchela 0–0 CS Constantine
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Khenchela 1–0 CS Constantine
45′HALF-TIME Khenchela 1–0 CS Constantine
45′SECOND HALF Khenchela 1–0 CS Constantine
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CS Constantine · On: Y. Agbagno · Off: D. Bizimana
52′🟨 YELLOW · 53' CS Constantine
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Khenchela 2–0 CS Constantine · A. Mathew Fall
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Khenchela 2–0 CS Constantine
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Khenchela
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' CS Constantine · On: J. Atibu · Off: H. Chekal Affari
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Khenchela · On: F. Amrane · Off: A. Chaibi
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Khenchela · On: I. Hachoud · Off: A. Mathew Fall
FTFULL TIME Khenchela 2–0 CS Constantine
FTKhenchela 2–0 CS Constantine · Khenchela win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 15:02 · locked at kick-off

Khenchela win43%

Draw27%

CS Constantine win30%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 15:00

Line-ups

Khenchela

CS Constantine

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Khenchela

CS Constantine

5Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	CS Constantine	4	+3	7
13	Khenchela	3	−1	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Khenchela

Formation not confirmed

16 O. Litim

27 Z. Zaitri

7 A. Askar

19 A. Dris

4 I. Boubekeur

14 K. Issouf

6 A. Zenasni

22 N. Benzid

11 A. Chaibi

29 A. Camara

9 A. Mathew Fall

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · H. Bencheikh El Fegoun

17 · S. Matallah

5 · Y. Douar

8 · A. Sameur

18 · A. Boukhalfa

23 · F. Amrane

15 · M. Nezla

21 · I. Hachoud

CS Constantine

Formation not confirmed

1 Z. Bouhalfaya

12 O. Meddahi

27 A. Chikhi

25 M. Rebiai

5 Y. Zeghad

14 D. Bizimana

8 H. Chekal Affari

17 A. Lahmeri

26 N. L'Ghoul

19 H. Djaouchi

18 K. Chaban

Coach · –

Substitutes

23 · A. Necir

2 · M. Belgourai

21 · M. Beneddine

6 · J. Atibu

30 · R. Torach

11 · M. Bakir

15 · M. Berkane

7 · M. Bouzekri

9 · Y. Agbagno

Our number · khenchela winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 11 Oct 17:24 · locked at kick-off

43% The market41%

Us43%

~~Market~~41%

We make Khenchela a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · khenchela win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Khenchela win	43%	41%	+2
Draw	27%	31%	−3
CS Constantine win	30%	28%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	44%	38%	+6
Both teams to score	48%	45%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	69%	62%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	23%	20%	+3
Khenchela or draw	70%	72%	−2
Khenchela clean sheet	34%	–	–
CS Constantine clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.2 9.5 5.2 1 11.8 12.8 6.8 2.5 2 8.0 8.5 4.6 3 3.6 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Khenchela down, CS Constantine across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,295 Ligue 1 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.38 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Khenchela at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). CS Constantine away: 1.33 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Khenchela, 1.08 for CS Constantine. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CSC 2–2 KHE · KHE 0–0 CSC · CSC 2–1 KHE · KHE 1–0 CSC

Form · last six in Ligue 1

KHENCHELA

DWWDDL2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

CS CONSTANTINE

DLDWLW2–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–5 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CR Belouizdad	4	+3	10
2	CS Constantine	4	+3	7
3	MC Oran	3	+3	7
4	USM Alger	4	+2	7
5	MC Alger	2	+3	6
6	Ben Aknoun	4	+1	6
7	JS Kabylie	3	+1	6
8	MB Rouisset	4	0	6
9	ES Setif	4	+2	4
10	JS El Biar	4	0	4
11	Olympique Akbou	4	−1	4
12	Témouchent	4	−2	4
13	Khenchela	3	−1	2
14	JS Saoura	3	−4	2
15	US Biskra	4	−5	2
16	ASO Chlef	4	−5	1