JS Saoura v Ben Aknoun prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:46

JS Saoura 0–0 Ben Aknoun JS SAOURA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said JS Saoura win~~54%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.907

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.733

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said JS Saoura win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: JS Saoura 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–21
1′KICK-OFF JS Saoura v Ben Aknoun
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' JS Saoura win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
44′We said JS Saoura at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–38–19
45′HALF-TIME JS Saoura 0–0 Ben Aknoun
51′We said JS Saoura at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–18
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+7' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was JS Saoura win 41%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 37–46–18
72′We said JS Saoura at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–13
72′SECOND HALF JS Saoura 0–0 Ben Aknoun
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' JS Saoura win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
77′We said JS Saoura at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–71–10
82′We said JS Saoura at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–80–7
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' JS Saoura win: 54% at kick-off, 13% now
85′We said JS Saoura at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
92′We said JS Saoura at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' JS Saoura win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME JS Saoura 0–0 Ben Aknoun
FTJS Saoura 0–0 Ben Aknoun · JS Saoura win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

JS Saoura are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: JS Saoura 54%, draw 25%, Ben Aknoun 21%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on JS Saoura v Ben AknounBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

JS Saoura win54%

Draw25%

Ben Aknoun win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

JS Saoura

Ben Aknoun

6Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

Last match: 16 Oct · Ligue 1 (Algeria)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Ben Aknoun	5	0	6
15	JS Saoura	5	−6	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · js saoura winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 03:52 · locked at kick-off

54% The market45%

Us54%

~~Market~~45%

We make JS Saoura a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · JS Saoura v Ben Aknoun~~1.68 – 0.94

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 3 Sept~~W0 D2 L3 · W1 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 6~~15 v 10

~~The market · JS Saoura win~~45% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · JS Saoura win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
JS Saoura win	54%	45%	+9
Draw	25%	31%	−6
Ben Aknoun win	21%	23%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	48%	37%	+11
Both teams to score	49%	43%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	73%	61%	+12
Over 3.5 goals	27%	20%	+7
JS Saoura or draw	79%	77%	+2
JS Saoura clean sheet	40%	–	–
Ben Aknoun clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.2%

0123450 7.8 6.8 3.3 1 12.2 11.5 5.3 2 10.2 9.3 4.4 3 5.7 5.2 2.5 4 2.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+JS Saoura down, Ben Aknoun across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,310 Ligue 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.5% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

JS Saoura at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ben Aknoun away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for JS Saoura, 0.94 for Ben Aknoun. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~JSS 1–0 BEN · BEN 1–1 JSS · BEN 2–0 JSS · JSS 1–0 BEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 3 Sept

JS SAOURA

LDDLL0–4 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

BEN AKNOUN

WDDDL1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MC Oran	6	+5	14
2	CR Belouizdad	5	+4	13
3	MB Rouisset	6	+3	12
4	JS Kabylie	5	+4	10
5	USM Alger	5	+3	10
6	Olympique Akbou	6	+3	10
7	JS El Biar	7	+1	8
8	MC Alger	3	+3	7
9	CS Constantine	7	−4	7
10	Ben Aknoun	5	0	6
11	ES Setif	5	+2	5
12	Khenchela	5	0	5
13	Témouchent	6	−4	5
14	ASO Chlef	6	−5	3
15	JS Saoura	5	−6	2
16	US Biskra	6	−9	2